Part of me thinks that Trump knows the power of crowd wisdom and the fact that the crowd is almost always right. As a businessman he may be somewhat amoral, but I think he's using the will of the crowd to guide his actions to a degree, at least until the next election if he's simply using game theory to game the populace.

The American people do not want another Iraq, and if he does choose to Iraq Iran after or before he's secured his next term it will tarnish his reputation permanently. His two terms will be a trophy for the neocons and they can mount his rotten legacy in their halls of infamy.

I do think Trump is using game theory, and also the Delphi technique in his tireless interactions and efforts. The big question is, can these techniques be utilized by someone with good intentions? What if the office of the president is a trap, what if every time someone steps into that office it's a losing game. Only would be POTUSes are not privy to this Intel until they've won the office, and then they either have to put up or shut up.

As in fall on the advice of advisers and become a stuffed suit or actually choose to play the game themselves and cause as little damage as they can in the process. I have a feeling that if a moral person like Ron Paul were to have won the office, he'd simply resign the next day because of the dis-empowering circumstances and the actions he'd legally be obliged to perform, and secrets he'd be forced to keep. Secrets arising from prior contracts agreed to by past Presidents that he had no input on.

If the office of the Bush or Obama presidency made a promise and there is a NDA with regards to the promise and strict penalties should the contract be broken, what is Trump to do? Should he violate the agreement or honor it? What if it goes against his moral principles?

I think we have very simplified expectations for the people who are elected, I think what I've outlined above can create circumstances where Presidents are immediately compromised by the ring of power they fought so hard for.

The business of nation States and the business of business is, or can be a dirty game, but nice article, there's a lot of insightful information here. I def think Trump is trying to appeal to the neocons and the popular antiwar sentiment at the same time.

The big question is, what will he decide to do? Also, what will be the motivation for that decision? If he decides to not war solely on account of getting reelected, then Trump supporters can expect to be extremely disappointed during his next term should he go full neocon.