No, Republicans Did Not "Win" in the Senate Today. I'll Explain.

The American political system is somewhat convoluted. For example, most would assume that the Republican party gaining 3 seats in the Senate is indicative of their having a lot of political support. At the very least, they must be holding their own, right? Well, no. Actually, the GOP just suffered a humiliating defeat. So, wait, what the f----?

Okay, so, the 100 U.S. Senate seats are divided into three “classes,” and only one of those three classes goes up for re-election each two years, providing for six-year terms. The current Senate is comprised of senators elected this time, last time, and the time before that.

This election cycle was Class 1’s turn. Of the 33 seats, Democrats won 20 of them, Republicans won 11, and two went to independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats. So, the Republican team was brutally trounced, and straggled in at a one-third minority of the available seats. Democratic caucus picked up a supermajority of available seats, the American holy grail of a political mandate. As a kicker, this is a midterm election, when Republicans traditionally fare better. So, what the heck are these “divided country” headlines about, and how in Washington’s name did the GOP gain seats?

Well, it’s not that complicated. Last time Class 1 had their turn in the cycle was 2012, when the Republican party lost a staggering 14 seats to the Democrats. So when we started the election in 2018, they only had 8 out of the 33 seats. For them to do so poorly this time that they came in at 11 out of 33 is actually almost a 50% gain from last time. Their crushing defeat this cycle has just still been overshadowed by the magnitude of their preceding whalloping.

And now, the tables have turned. For each of the next two Senate classes, the Republican party will have to defend roughly twice as many seats as the Democrats (sounds expensive) -- a consequence of their own resounding successes in the elections two and four years ago respectively. It’s worse for them than it looks. The remaining 23 Democratic senators up for re-election are among the hardest to unseat -- they already survived at least one major culling of their party. In contrast, many of the 44 Republican senators up for re-election over the next four years are the most vulnerable, many in swing districts that they barely won for the first time last election, with the political winds on their side.

The Democrats are now poised next election to take decisive control of the entire legislative branch and quite likely the executive branch, and to hold the Senate during the following midterm. It’s going to be amazing watching them blow it all to hell and lose somehow.