India Election Analysis and Forecast – Part 4: Gujarat

Authored by govil and jain - astute political observers

In this article, the election dynamics for the state of Gujarat is discussed and analyzed.

The state of Gujarat is located on the west coast of India. It came into existence in 1960 when the erstwhile Bombay State was divided into two states along linguistic lines. The Gujarati speaking part of the state was separated into a separate state called Gujarat. The following map gives the location of the state on the Map of India and also the fundamental electoral and social data on the state.

Ever since its inception, the state was ruled by a government formed by Congress party. Up until 1900. In the year 1900 for the first time Congress had been unseated from power and the coalition government of Janata Dal and BJP came into power. BJP has not looked back since then. In the year 1995 BJP formed a government in Gujarat on its own and ever since has been in power to this day.

In the year 2002, the state was rocked by massive disturbances as a sequel to 1992 developments on the disputed Babri Masjid. The state had a new and inexperienced Chief Minister at the helm – Mr. Narendra Modi. If anyone can be said to have gone through ‘baptism by fire' in Indian politics, it is this man Narendra Modi. And how well he acquitted himself in the political field is today well chronicled not just in Gujarat politics but also in the national politics of India in last eight to nine years and I dare say even internationally in the last few years. Modi led BJP to victory in 2002, then 2007, and then in 2012 assembly polls. During this period, he led his state on a path of unprecedented growth and development. He created a name for himself not just in the state of Gujarat but also across India. On the strength of his performance, Modi went on to become the Prime Minister of the country in 2014.

Needless to mention that during all these years under his stewardship of Gujarat (2002 to 2014), the BJP party always won more than 60% of the parliamentary seats of Gujarat except in 2014 when the state made a clean sweep for BJP and won all the 26 parliamentary seats. Since Modi’s moving to New Delhi as Prime Minister for India (May 2014), the state witnessed its first state assembly elections under a new Chief Minister in 2017. After so many years signs of weakness were observed and the results demonstrated the same. BJP managed to win a clear majority but lost a sizeable chunk of seats in the assembly. The opposition party Congress made handsome gains. Among other things, one thing stood out. Congress stitched an alliance with three young leaders – Jignesh Mawani (icon of backward classes), Hardik Patel (young icon from dominant Patel segment of the state), and, Alpesh Thakor (young icon of Ekta Manch bringing together backward classes and some high caste societies). The alliance proved to be a short-lived one. Today all three young icons have been marginalized and have either parted company with Congress or have been rendered ineffective due to assorted reasons. Going into Lok Sabha elections in 2019 this is a big positive for BJP.

There were also some negatives since 2014. The decision by the central government to introduce Goods and Service Tax (GST) and its poor implementation had created a lot of heartburns all over the country, especially in Gujarat. There was also tremendous consternation with respect to the Demonetization decision (https://steemit.com/india/@ajain/ft-rebuttal-part-4-demonitization). Both these decisions were fairly unpopular. We must bear in mind that Gujarat is a hugely prosperous state with a very large trading community. The negative impact of these decisions was definitely felt by BJP in the state assembly elections in 2017. As mentioned above, BJP managed to retain a clear majority but with a considerably reduced margin. However, today in 2019, the teething troubles arising out of these decisions are over and the benefits are starting to flow. The negative sentiments have therefore receded and people are getting to experience the positive implications. Accordingly, the electoral downside has totally vanished even if there is no upside to these decisions from an electoral point of view.

BJP has today recovered the lost ground. This has also been made possible due to the faltering strategy of the opposition - namely Congress (as mentioned above the alliance of 2017 rather than gaining momentum has actually fizzled out). On the other hand, the good work done by the central government in the state over the last few years is standing out and being appreciated (data with respect to Gujarat for the central schemes rolled out is presented in the graphic below).

The magic of Modi name, a person who remains to be the pride of Gujarati people, continues in full flow. In fact, it got a further boost with a couple of flagship projects, for which the state will be a major beneficiary. These projects also reinforce the Gujarati pride. Though these are not really an electoral issue there is no denying the positive rub-off of these projects on the image and popularity of Modi.

First and foremost is the commissioning of Statue of Unity (this was done on 31st October 2018). It is the tallest statue in the world today. The statue is situated in the state of Gujarat. In itself, it is a matter of pride not just for Gujarat but also for India as a nation. But, for the state of Gujarat, it is, even more, a matter of pride. The statue is in honor of one of the tallest, and perhaps the most respected leader Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel -commonly referred to across India as the ‘Iron Man of India’. He was the man responsible for integrating 542 princely states into the Union of India back in 1947 when British transferred power to Indians. That is why the name – Statue of Unity.

Read about the Statue of Unity here - https://steemit.com/india/@ajain/ft-rebuttal-part-5-economic-growth-squandered-away-on-symbolic-projects

The second important project is the Bullet train. A decision was taken by the central government to introduce Bullet Trains in India in collaboration with Japan. The first train will run between Ahmedabad (Biggest city of Gujarat State) and Mumbai. The project has already been commissioned and is well underway for an inaugural run in 2022.

And finally, the impact of recent action by India against terrorism. India took stiff retaliatory action against Pakistan in wake of recent terrorist attacks in India carried out by Pakistan sponsored and trained terrorists. This is commonly referred to as ‘Pulwama Attack’ since it happened near Pulwama city in the state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). India carried out a swift retaliatory air strike at a place called Balakot in Pakistan. The entire training infrastructure at Balakot was destroyed and the inmates (trainers and trainees) were liquidated. Heavy damages and significant causalities were inflicted. Balakot is 50 to 80 miles inside Pakistan. Gujarat being a border state, the air strike was deeply appreciated and it instilled a sense of security among the people. Though the success of operations is entirely due to meticulous planning and its execution by intelligence outfits and defence forces, people credit Modi and his team for taking the bold and courageous decision. People also draw a contrast with paralysis and inaction in the previous Congress government when similar terrorist strikes took place in India in the past under their regime.

In view of the above analysis, the assessment of the authors is that BJP is again on a very strong wicket in the state. It may not be able to do a clean sweep as in 2014 but will be very close to it. Our assessment is that BJP will win 24 out of 26 seats of Gujarat.

Given below is the summary of running total of the BJP expected win so far with this article included.

A reminder
If you have liked the article do upvote us. Please also feel free to comment on the article. We welcome relevant discussions and opinions.