Here is how the electoral college bias looks like in Nate Silver's model.

Right now the model expects an electoral college bias of 1.7. That'd be significantly less than it was in 2020 (~3.9).

Basically it means Harris can win the election if she wins the popular vote by 1.7 points or more.

In his polling average, the electoral college bias is currently 1.5 with Pennsylvania as the tipping point state where Harris leads by 1.5.

Harris currently leads nationally by ~3 points.