⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 29) ⚽️
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | Everton | 1.212926636 | 0.8226334569 | 2.035560092 | 0.3902931786 |
| Leicester | Bournemouth | 1.619405194 | 1.116361632 | 2.735766825 | 0.503043562 |
| Southampton | Stoke | 1.599313209 | 1.005388515 | 2.604701724 | 0.5939246935 |
| Tottenham | Huddersfield | 2.493739894 | 0.589351993 | 3.083091887 | 1.904387901 |
| Swansea | West Ham | 1.332279731 | 1.241353476 | 2.573633206 | 0.090926255 |
| Watford | West Brom | 1.488875219 | 1.03690718 | 2.525782399 | 0.4519680389 |
| Liverpool | Newcastle | 2.308130378 | 0.8618181836 | 3.169948562 | 1.446312194 |
| Brighton | Arsenal | 1.218965917 | 1.484794264 | 2.703760181 | -0.2658283465 |
| Man City | Chelsea | 2.073387463 | 1.084441784 | 3.157829247 | 0.9889456783 |
| Crystal Palace | Man United | 0.8816125882 | 1.585103441 | 2.466716029 | -0.7034908528 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Tottenham with a goal supremacy value of 1.9
- I predict the highest scoring game to be Liverpool vs Newcastle with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.17
- Burnley vs Everton looks to be the lowest scoring game with a Goal Expectancy of just 2.04
Bet of the week
Crystal Palace vs Man United
Analysis: If you saw my post last week, you'd have seen me tip Crystal Palace to beat the +1 handicap at home to Spurs, thanks to their decent home record under Hodgson. An 88th min winner from Kane meant I had to settle for a push (money back). Let's consider this attempt number 2, against a United side that, in my opinion, is not quite as good as Spurs (although the table currently doesn't reflect that). In the 14 away matches United have played this season, they have won by 2 goals or more in just 4 (0-4 vs Swansea, 2-4 vs Watford, 1-3 vs Arsenal, 0-2 vs Everton).
I believe United are due a bit of regression, as even though they have arguably the best goalkeeper in the world in De Gea, even he can't keep up his current rate of match-saving performances for much longer. Even if Palace don't score, they are certainly capable of keeping a clean sheet (as they did against Man City when it finished 0-0). United on the other hand lost their last away game 1-0 to a team at a similar level to Palace (Newcastle), and so the obvious bet for me is to take Palace on the handicap.
Bet: Crystal Palace +1 (AH) @ 1.97 (188BET)
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:
Swansea Over 2.25
Huddersfield +2
Newcastle +2
B&H Albion +0.5
Crystal Palace +1
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
, resteem 
and
Well that was unlucky! Crystal Palace were 2-0 up and threw away the points, with the last goal being a 92nd minute 30 yard strike from Matic... At least with handicap betting we get our money back :).
I've lost two times chasing that mysterious Crystal Palace victory... Third time's a charm :)
On a serious note, they are doing exceptionally well, especially when they have so many injured players and the manager is having trouble assembling a team. I believe I've heard him say a week ago he's just trying to survive the next few games until his players recover from the injuries.
Of the bets you've placed, I like this one the most: B&H Albion +0.5
Arsenal is a total mess, unable to perform even if they had to. It looks like they want to get rid of Wenger, blame him for the poor season... I can see the players getting behind that idea. It's not us, it's the French guy :-)
Good luck this weekend!
(Sorry for not upvoting right now, my voting power is drained. You've got a resteem)
Thanks mate! I agree that Arsenal looked demoralised after conceding an early goal against City last night. It could well be the case that they've lost respect for the manager, and might have given up hopes on top 4 now too.
I agree with you that burnley match will have the least goals but for the highest goals I will go for Leicester City Vs Bournemouth.
Upvoted...,I will follow and resteem you too.
This post has received a 60.61% upvote from @msp-bidbot thanks to: @acelad. Delegate SP to this public bot and get paid daily: 50SP, 100SP, 250SP, 500SP, 1000SP, 5000SP Don't delegate so much that you have less than 50SP left on your account.
You got a 28.30% upvote from @mercurybot courtesy of @acelad!
kindly follow back and upvote my posts please...
Gawat that i cetak goal euh