⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 34) ⚽️

The numbers

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Supr
Southampton	Chelsea	0.96	1.45	2.41	-0.49
Burnley	Leicester	1.22	1.01	2.23	0.20
Crystal Palace	Brighton	1.32	1.01	2.33	0.31
Huddersfield	Watford	1.16	1.24	2.40	-0.08
Swansea	Everton	1.19	1.11	2.30	0.09
Liverpool	Bournemouth	2.41	0.88	3.29	1.54
Tottenham	Man City	1.34	1.32	2.66	0.02
Newcastle	Arsenal	1.16	1.43	2.59	-0.28
Man United	West Brom	1.97	0.66	2.63	1.31
West Ham	Stoke	1.66	1.03	2.69	0.63

Summary

• Liverpool are the banker of the week with a GS value of 1.54
• The tightest game of the week is Spurs vs Man City with a GS of just -0.02

Bet of the week

I don't have any strong recommendations right now, but if I do find something before the first KO time I'll be sure to edit this post!

Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:

Southampton +0.5
B&H Albion +0.5
Bournemouth +1.75
Tottenham Under 3
WBA +2

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

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