⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 34) ⚽️
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | Chelsea | 0.96 | 1.45 | 2.41 | -0.49 |
| Burnley | Leicester | 1.22 | 1.01 | 2.23 | 0.20 |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton | 1.32 | 1.01 | 2.33 | 0.31 |
| Huddersfield | Watford | 1.16 | 1.24 | 2.40 | -0.08 |
| Swansea | Everton | 1.19 | 1.11 | 2.30 | 0.09 |
| Liverpool | Bournemouth | 2.41 | 0.88 | 3.29 | 1.54 |
| Tottenham | Man City | 1.34 | 1.32 | 2.66 | 0.02 |
| Newcastle | Arsenal | 1.16 | 1.43 | 2.59 | -0.28 |
| Man United | West Brom | 1.97 | 0.66 | 2.63 | 1.31 |
| West Ham | Stoke | 1.66 | 1.03 | 2.69 | 0.63 |
Summary
- Liverpool are the banker of the week with a GS value of 1.54
- The tightest game of the week is Spurs vs Man City with a GS of just -0.02
Bet of the week
I don't have any strong recommendations right now, but if I do find something before the first KO time I'll be sure to edit this post!
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:
Southampton +0.5
B&H Albion +0.5
Bournemouth +1.75
Tottenham Under 3
WBA +2
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
, resteem 
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