⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 37) ⚽️

The numbers

Note: I've been asked this question so I thought I would clarify that the prediction column just means the most likely correct score. If you want to know if a game will likely finish Over/Under 2.5 goals, you can assume that a Tot G figure of 2.5+ means likely over 2.5 goals and vice versa.

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Supr
Brighton	Man United	0.92	1.46	2.39	-0.54
Stoke	Crystal Palace	1.22	1.31	2.53	-0.08
Bournemouth	Swansea	1.51	0.91	2.42	0.59
Leicester	West Ham	1.82	1.09	2.91	0.74
Watford	Newcastle	1.26	1.19	2.45	0.06
West Brom	Tottenham	0.84	1.58	2.42	-0.75
Everton	Southampton	1.39	1.05	2.43	0.34
Man City	Huddersfield	2.79	0.55	3.34	2.24
Arsenal	Burnley	1.62	0.93	2.54	0.69
Chelsea	Liverpool	1.50	1.28	2.78	0.22
Swansea	Southampton	1.15	1.00	2.16	0.15
Chelsea	Huddersfield	1.98	0.60	2.57	1.38
Leicester	Arsenal	1.63	1.46	3.09	0.17
Man City	Brighton	2.81	0.55	3.36	2.25
Tottenham	Newcastle	1.91	0.95	2.86	0.96
West Ham	Man United	0.97	1.88	2.85	-0.91

Summary

• Man City are the banker of the gameweek (vs Brighton) with a GS value of 2.25
• Swansea vs Southampton is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair with a total of just 2.16 goals predicted

Bet of the week

Pick & writeup TBA...

Bet of the week running total:

Bets	Won	Push	Lost	P/L
7	2	2	3	-0.95

Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:

B&H Albion +0.75
Leicester -0.25
WBA +1.25
Huddersfield +2.75
Burnley +1

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

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