⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 38) ⚽️

The numbers

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Supr
Burnley	Bournemouth	1.30	0.98	2.28	0.31
Crystal Palace	West Brom	1.45	0.92	2.37	0.53
Huddersfield	Arsenal	1.00	1.61	2.60	-0.61
Liverpool	Brighton	2.12	0.67	2.80	1.45
Man United	Watford	1.99	0.80	2.78	1.19
Newcastle	Chelsea	0.94	1.33	2.27	-0.39
Southampton	Man City	0.82	2.08	2.90	-1.26
Tottenham	Leicester	2.04	0.87	2.91	1.17
Swansea	Stoke	1.25	0.99	2.24	0.26
West Ham	Everton	1.43	1.20	2.63	0.24

Summary

• Liverpool are the banker of the gameweek with a GS value of 1.45 (but keep in mind they only need a draw for a CL place)
• If you're betting, beware of teams with nothing to play for, as these games can have unexpected results!

Bet of the week

Although Liverpool are the banker of the gameweek according to my model, there are a few reasons why a big win isn't as likely as many would think. Let's delve into some analysis to find out why...

• H2H: Liverpool beat Brighton 5-1 away this season with some great finishing (6 SoT).
• Liverpool home form vs similar opposition: 6W-3D-0L (5x won by 3+, 1x by 2 out of 9 games)
• Brighton away form vs similar opposition: 0W-0D-4L (3x 2-0s, 1x 1-0)
• Liverpool recent form: Liverpool have been disappointing in their last 3 games, drawing twice against weak opposition (Stoke, WBA) and losing to Chelsea away
• Brighton recent form: Two draws (Spurs, Burnley) and one win (Man United) against decent opposition
• Motivation: Liverpool can claim third if they win, though this is unlikely as Spurs are expected to beat Leicester, so it's more likely they'll be happy with a draw today to ensure CL qualification at least. The first team are expected to start, but they will certainly be trying to manage the game with the CL final in mind on May 26th. A 1-0 win with no injuries would certainly make Klopp happy! Brighton on the other hand have little to play for, though they could jump from 14th to 10th place if they manage a win. Clearly they have been playing well with "no pressure" so don't expect them to collapse today (although anything's possible on the final day!)
• BotW Summary: With all factors considered, Brighton look a decent bet on the +2 handicap above evens against a Liverpool team that will be looking to win without over-exerting. 2-0, 1-0 are the most likely scores, and I would expect to have to take a push (money back) ~20% of the time here. If you're betting in-play, perhaps look to back Brighton on the handicap/U3.5 goals if they go down to a first half goal and Liverpool slow the tempo after it.

BotW: Brighton +2 (AH) vs Liverpool @ 2.08 (Pinnacle)

Bet of the week running total:

Bets	Won	Push	Lost	P/L
7	2	2	3	-0.95

Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:

Burnley Under 2.5
Huddersfield +1
B&H Albion +2
Newcastle +1
Tottenham Under 3.25

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

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