Sometimes my own model surprises me! The fact is, if this were based on shot stats alone, Liverpool would edge it. However, we can't ignore United's incredible defensive record at home, conceding only 6 goals in 14 matches!

A draw is also a likely result, as the last 4 H2H have finished either 0-0 or 1-1.

I think the first goal is crucial:

Scenario A) If United score first they will sit very deep and make it difficult even for Liverpool to create a chance. The most likely score here is no more goals, and it finishes 1-0.

Scenario B) If Liverpool score first United will have to open up, and with Liverpool's pace up front, and ability to get in behind, this could finish 0-2, 0-3, 1-3... If United withstand the pressure and get a goal back of their own, they can revert to their normal shape and it most likely finishes 1-1.

I'm actually a Liverpool fan myself, so I'm hoping we get the first goal. It'll make for a more exciting match for the neutrals too!