My model favors Everton today, too:

40.97% Everton vs 30.23% Liverpool, but I'm not that sure. Liverpool is strong, in form side that can do well even with their second team.

Your bet (Everton +0.5) seems the reasonable choice for this game, but since I'm placing micro bets based on my model's picks I have 0.5€ on Everton today :-)