Beat the Bookies

I was reading William Poundstone’s ‘How to Predict the Unpredictable’ and came across an interesting chapter, How to Outguess Football Bets. The premise goes like his:

• “Make your best estimate of the probability of an away team win…
• Bet on an away win if and only if your estimated probability is between 44.7 and 71.5 percent. Pay no attention to the bookie odds or anything else.
• Never bet on the home team or a draw,…….. as away team strategies appear to offer profits net of bookie commission” (p177 How to Predict the Unpredictable)

Suffice to say my attention had been captured and I am now deciding to put the theory to the test. The author goes to great lengths to point out that one should not expect to get rich, and should “Think of it as a way to gamble for free.” In fact, when researchers actually applied the theory, during the 2008 English Premier League, their success percentage stood at 63, not bad…

So what I have done is:
• Create a database which stores the last 10 years’ worth of results, broken down by team
• The database then calculates attack/defence strength per team, both home and away.
• From this, I should be able to look at an upcoming fixture list, input the numbers and voila, get my estimated probability percentage.

An exact science it is not, but then I do not claim any such discipline; this is more for my enjoyment and entertainment. I am merely offering you the opportunity to play along, join in, and improve the predictions.

Next week the following games take place: (only the bolded fall within our range 44.7 – 71.5)

• Friday 20/10
  West Ham v Brighton
• Saturday 21/10
  Chelsea v Watford
  Man City v Burnley
  Swansea v Leicester
  Huddersfield v Man Utd
  Newcastle v Crystal Palace
  Stoke v Bournemouth
  Southampton v West Brom
• Sunday 22/10
  Everton v Arsenal
  Tottenham v Liverpool

Only 1 game seems to fall into next weeks fixture list, that covers the above criteria, so let’s keep an eye. According to PaddyPower.com the odds are a paltry 3/10, and with my €5 stake, I would have potential returns of €6.50. Like I said millionaires this will not make, so it’s the long game we are playing here.

As he weeks go on I will keep a record of all predictions, along with money earned and lost.

Action To Take
€5 on Man Utd to win