A conjecture about the future
Today, most of the time I was sitting at the computer, I was thinking about a brainstorming thing. After I thought about the logic, I felt very fulfilled and shared it with you at night.
What I was thinking about at the time was, what family things in the future would be replaced or gradually disappeared?
In fact, there are still a lot of household utensils that have disappeared in history. For example, the flashlights that are available in the family at home are basically not used after the city lighting is good. Occasionally, there is a flashlight function in the mobile phone. For example, the recorder that listened to songs at home was replaced by computer + speakers, such as the original watch and camera, which are now integrated into the smartphone.
I also considered that the TV is gradually getting out of hand, because young people mainly play computer and mobile phones, and the proportion and time of watching TV have dropped drastically. Nowadays, the TV price is getting cheaper and cheaper. The performance of the listed company that is the main TV company is also the same. Although it will not be completely eliminated in a while, the proportion of its households continues to decline.
These are all I thought before, and what I think today is that the household items of the kitchen and the kitchen may be gradually eliminated in the future. In the future, the home of young people may not even have a kitchen.
This view sounds very shocking. You listen to me as a book: To make a meal at home, you must first go to the supermarket or the vegetable market to buy raw materials. When you get home, you have to do the work of cleaning raw materials. It takes time to cook and finish eating. After washing the dishes, it will take at least 1-2 hours before and after. Why don't you go to the restaurant to eat or order a takeaway?
Some people say that it is cheap to cook, and it is more expensive to calculate your time cost. If your daily salary is 200, the hourly salary is 25, and the time you put it in is converted into money, which is definitely more expensive than going to the hotel. The simplest economic principle, division of labor to improve efficiency, you are doing it yourself at home, how is it more efficient than professional restaurant?
Therefore, people who earn more than 10,000 a month will have a low proportion of cooking at home, not all because they are lazy, but it's not economically, and the time saved can make higher returns.
Social progress will gradually change traditional concepts and customs. In the past 500 years, people all over the world feel that every household should have their own crops, and how many people are now working in agriculture? They are concentrated on a small number of professional farmers to cultivate, and 1% of American farmers have raised 300 million Americans. In the same way, cooking at home may have a same future, and I think it will be centralized soon through social division of labor.
In fact, the state of my family already has this trend, ABCDEFG ... take turns to ask for a variety of take-away, the proportion of home-made has been very low. Many relatives and friends of my hometown heard I was eating take-away usually felt that my life quality was not good. I didn’t explain much. It’s cheap and time-saving. It’s good while ordering take-aways. always ordering, and always cool.
Nowadays, the utilization rate of young people’s kitchens in first-tier cities is getting lower and lower, and the price is so expensive. I think more and more people will reflect on it soon. Why should I Spend four or five million to buy a kitchen that uses no more than 4 times a week? The monthly rent for a single room of 6 square meters in a city like Beijing is about 2200-2400. This is the hidden cost of the kitchen. If those money is subsidized for eating outside, it will be very comfortable to eat outside.
Therefore, I think that from the long-term cycle of the kitchen industry, the whole is going downhill. The demand will not only gradually decrease, but also gradually soften. The future may be as dispensable as TV. Nowadays, the small units in the first-tier cities are generally smaller and smaller, and some are directly open, and it is enough to make a stove on one side of the hallway corridor.
Further thinking about the first layer, the future of the refrigerator, this home appliance is also to be transformed, there is no need to make a large amount of leftovers, cooking ingredients, small enough to put enough snacks and fruit juice is enough, similar Small freezer in the company.
In fact, it depends on what is really needed in the family. The main logic is whether or not the social division of labor can be replaced. From this perspective, the washing machine is actually a bit dangerous. I think American movies often see large laundry rooms in the community as an alternative. I think about it, only the bedroom, toilet, washing, air conditioning, WIFI is the hardest rigid demands. Even the computers that have been needed in the past few years are now soft. If it is not for the working, I am too lazy to bring my notebook.
I feel that my ideas and logic are no problem. It is nothing more than a concept that is ahead of the competition and faster than social evolution. But remember what I said, and check it will be fulfilled after 20-30 years or not.