This sounds about right, actually. And I do think that there's a chance that good quality content will rise based on other effects. I am for all the changes, and I can at least tell you that the motivation is that content that pretty much everyone agrees is trash that is trivially upvoted will be downvoted with the new incentives. If the changes accomplish the task of shifting these kinds of rewards, it can really make a difference. Those numbers you pulled are obviously true if everything stays exactly the same in terms of distribution. But the whole point is that the aim is that it won't. I actually think that good content creators will be gaining more when the dust settles. How do I know? I sure as hell don't know for sure though, so I can see why everyone is so hesitant or downright dismissive of these changes. Downvotes need to happen, and distribution needs to shift. Happy to talk more about specifics, but all I really wanted to start with is to say that looking at these numbers based on present distribution is really not helpful.