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RE: HF21 and the Steem Vision
Well that's the balance. They have to predict what will be popular, that isn't popular already. If they see it should be worth more then it makes sense for them to vote on it. So if you are already popular I don't really see that as a worry.
Also, big picture: if the reward pool is being used more efficiently, then it is producing value and everything will be worth more. So it really is hard to say.
This is how i feel after reading everything. :D
But honestly, i really dont want to lose what i have now. I dont use bots and i work hard on my content. I see someone say i will have my rewards reduced by 40% and i cant feel happy with that.
Even you write about what is popular what is not, what is efficient and what is not but i only know for sure that i will have reduced earnings. :(
I can't say that that's true "for sure". But I also can't deny that it's possible. But the efforts to adjusts incentives is an honest one, and it's just not accurate when people paint it as "stealing from the poor" or "stealing from the authors".
It is not stealing because how reward pool functions but it does look like "changing where river flows."
Oh well we will see how it goes. ☺
In the original HF21 article I read, there was the comment that 50/50 is not good enough, it should be Curators 80% and authors 20%, but it is better we do not do it now, let everyone get used to the reduced rewards and at the next HF go for it.
It is just like the outside world. The Big Tech mentality is alive and well in here.
Trust your gut and don't be baffled by BS. The principles of business and investment are simple. Profiteers today receive almost all the rewards, leaving creators such as you and I less than 10% of it. EIP will increase the profits of profiteers by 40%.
What does you gut tell you will happen?
Even more of the value of Steem will be extracted before it increases the value of the underlying investment vehicle, Steem, and the price of Steem will crash. Millions of Steem are now being powered down to sell before the crash.
You know what will happen, because you have common sense. EIP is designed to extract as quickly as possible all the value from Steem so that it can be sold as quickly as possible. @steem is powering down.
Trust your gut. Don't be baffled by BS.
That is a very bleak future you see. I will wait a bit and see what happens. I dont think those that proposed the system would want to destroy their own investment.
When writing becomes visible on walls, even if you don't grasp the basic reasons it got there, you can act to avoid even more harm. That's what I think is the case here. The lolbertarian devs know code, but have no experience investing. They came up with unlimited manipulation via stake to impact quality of content because that made sense to them, and people project their grasp and morals on others.
They may yet not recognize that the idea can't work because folks are far more likely to simply maximize their immediate financial returns, rather than care about what the manipulation mechanism - people's posts and comments - say. The constant failure of the idea of whale curation simply doesn't leap their cognitive bias and enable them to grasp reality in this matter. That's really the least scathing speculation I can come up with to explain the present circumstances.
While that may create exactly the situation I predict: a crash in the price of Steem and profiteers bailing, that isn't necessarily the death of Steem. It could be just a setback pricewise, and allow investing experienced or more rational devs to gain the ability to implement sound code that does encourage investment. In the long run, that would be very beneficial and the incredible potential of Steem to form a basis for incorruptible votes on every issue while simultaneously providing funding could create a real form of government that hasn't existed before.
I'm here for the free speech, and that doesn't appear to have been sold off with the marketing department. I'll hang on and see what happens too.
The value of the time of whales is better spent on their business than fine-tuning their rewards. All they have to do under this - or any tweak to rewards along these lines - is delegate to a bot and exert 0 effort to fine tune their profiteering to extract almost all of the rewards from the pool.
The bidbot owners take care of everything for them. All they have to do is sell their profits on the market, and continue to crash the price of Steem.
That's what will continue to happen, only it will happen faster with a modified exponential rewards curve, and doubling curation rewards. EIP is the last rush to extract the value left in Steem which there is presently a race to sell before the price crashes. Then the profiteers will move on to the next target.
That's what profiteers do.
They can, but they still lose compared to now with the new rules. There's a lot of shifting that will happen especially with 50/50 and dealing with the leakage to external curation votes, and incentives to move away from bid bots, and the potential downvotes is even more motivation. Yes, they'll do their best, but they are actually being penalized compared to now.
They're going to get ~40% more of the remaining rewards they don't already extract before it increases the value of Steem. Almost all rewards now go to whales, with creators splitting less than 10%. Double curation rewards, and create a modified exponential rewards curve, then add a tax on rewards on creators, and, oh, hey, let's give flaggots free downvotes too.
The downvote pool doesn't acknowledge that what keeps most folks from flagging isn't VP cost. It's retaliation. Small stakeholders can be crushed by flaggots, and i've seen it happen more than once. Bernie will get more flags for free though.
None of that addresses the fact that investors are encouraged by potential capital gains, and with almost all the rewards being extracted by whales before the value can increase the price of Steem, there is no reasonable basis to expect capital gains. Hedge funds aren't in the business of self voting, or delegating to bidbots for their returns. They seek capital gains, and Steem can't give them any as configured, and EIP is making that worse.
And how do you imagine they will be getting 40% more? These principles already take into account maximizing behaviors. Unless you tell me the top X whales all agree to indiscriminately downvote everyone else, which I highly doubt. If you are a whale, and are just playing maximization, your incentive is to downvote other highly valued posts, presumably made by another whale, rather than small fish.