Don't forget the bidbots. ~90% or more of the value of Steem is extracted by profiteers delegating to bidbots,or otherwise manipulating rewards. All of that profiteering discourages capital gains. EIP increases by another 40% of the remaining ~10% of the value of Steem currently shared by content creators that will be extracted by profiteers and bidbots.

Common sense is all that is necessary to predict what will happen to the price of Steem. @steem is powering down tens of millions of Steem right now, so that it can be sold before the price crashes.

Listen to your guts. They aren't lying to you.