Is Bitcoin in a Bubble? About To Crash? Or about To Get Started Inflating?
Bitcoin is in a weird position right now.
It is hovering around $100k for some reason.
With the amount of ETF buying and Michael Saylor buying, there should be a lot of up pressure on the price, but there isn't.
So, are we at the top? The bottom? Or are we on the cusp of something that will be economics redefining?
Many people say bitcoin is a bubble, and about to pop. Bitcoin will go to zero. Bitcoin is dead… again.
And there is that possibility. The US govern-cement could, somehow, destroy it. By regulating it out of existence. Turning off the electric grid. Shutting off the internet. And/or demanding everyone use FedNowCash, under penalty of being shot, without a trial.
Of course, none of this would work. As every piece of that, people all over the world would not even notice, and the people in The US would just find a work around.
The Elite could do something that makes bitcoin boring, and so destroy it that way. However, bitcoin lovers are usually Elite haters and don't listen to the TV.
With bitcoin ETFs being the fastest growing ETFs ever, and interest is not waning, but growing, so, i am pretty sure that bitcoin is not in a bubble.
Instead of popping, crashing, fizzling out, or going to zero, it actually appears that everything is going to zero vs. bitcoin.
Bitcoin is growing bigger.
Trump announced creating a bitcoin reserve for America. (not The US… weird)
Many other countries are talking about front-running America.
Michael Saylor is raising more funds to buy more bitcoin.
Many companies are talking about getting into bitcoin too.
Of course, if these companies / countries are all talking about it, they have already been doing it, quietly.
And that may be the biggest problem. Everyone is buying; who is selling?
I hope that Coinbase is not selling customer's cold stored bitcoin. If they are, they are a gone company. Because bitcoin is about to skyrocket, and become unobtainium. Coinbase will never be able to afford the bitcoin to give back, and there won't be anyone selling, if they could afford it.
It is all about the supply crunch.
If The US actually starts buying bitcoin, they have all the dollars to throw at it. The price can go sky high. The only stop is where the dollar stops being valuable. (at least in bitcoin terms)
Maybe there is a lot more people out there willing to provide bitcoin at $100k. And they are selling to the likes of Michael Saylor directly; not being put onto the exchange.
But what happens when enough people are willing to buy up whatever is offered, at whatever price is offered? When everything put onto an exchange is bought at whatever the ask is?
Instead of an exchange, which is trying to find market price because of enough liquidity, we change to an auction. And people bid whatever they can, to get an ever increasingly scarce commodity.
Things could get really furious out there on bitcoin sites.
But, what does this all really mean?
We are at the start of bitcoin becoming the world reserve commodity. (not cyrpto adoption)
Gold is a problematic commodity. Especially in a world where everyone is going to war. It becomes impossible to exchange. Especially when no one trusts each other.
Whereas bitcoin doesn't care about borders. It can go everywhere the internet goes. And its trustless. The perfect thing for the govern-cements and large corporations to use in balancing the books.
So, if we do not see the supply crunch. Bitcoin is going to somewhere around $250,000.
If we do run out of bitcoin on exchanges, bitcoin will go to prices that are unbelievable. $1 million will be the price before people just give up trying to price bitcoin in dollars. Before $10 million, we will see things priced in bitcoin. There just isn't enough actual liquid cash to convert into and out of crypto to do those transactions. There is only enough Tether to buy 13,000 bitcoin at those prices.
Which also leads to another piece to ponder over. As they print more dollars to buy more bitcoin, stable coins may go up in value because they can't print enough tokens to keep up with the inflation. So, USDT may go to $3.
The rush to get into bitcoin will be real.
I can see things both ways. If the US Gubment starts soaking up supply then all bets are off. We have no clue how high it could really go and a lot of that should roll to the alts and pull everything up.
Colin Talks Crypto feels that the high for the dominance is in for BTC at this point. It's hard to really say because the wildcard is the whole premise that nation states will start buying it up.
I'm surprised to see people giving warning to Michael Saylor's strategy of buying so much BTC with debt and then calling question on what the company does outside of just buying Bitcoin at this point. I thought they were going to implode last bear market because he was upside down bad with a 30K cost basis and then having BTC go down below $16K but he was able to hold on and ride out of it to look like a Beast.
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One thing i really want to ask, and you are probably THE guy to ask is about meme coins.
I have known that a huge amount of the coins/tokens out there will be gone soon. The wheat will be separated from the chaff, and 90% of cryptos will be gone.
I used to think, of course that would include meme coins. However, most of the real support, is the young crowd, and they seem to love their meme coins. But, that love can be fickle.
So, maybe it is all the projects that were just a faster bitcoin that fall away.
Besides Litecoin and BitcoinCash, probably every other "faster bitcoin" will just go away.
How is DASH doing? I haven't heard anything from them.
The real winners will be like Theta, Filecoin, and the others that are like, internet 3.0 glue.
I just feel that Doge is going to be here to stay, cause the young crowd will just keep using it.
Of course, HawkTauh coin is complete garbage.
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So several things have changed the game but a lot of things are the same. In some respects we have regressed. I can't tell you the amount of times I have seen what I considered an infinite money glitch and my mind is blown by the progress but then the stupid things are actually getting a bid and people are throwing insane amounts of money at it. It's almost like a lot of the stuff with the most utility didn't catch fire for various reasons. I'm taking a lot of mental notes and in some respects I try to understand the reason why the pitch is compelling to people that don't know anything or know very little. I almost yelled at one of my baseball players through Instagram last night. He constantly is talking about how he wants to buy $ZENA and then was telling me I should have done a presale but then acts like he doesn't have $10. It's annoying and I have to exercise maximum patience. Then he starts telling me about this garbage token that was having a presale and I wasted my time even looking at it and he admitted he didn't know how to buy it. I was trying to determine what about the marketing it was that captured him. Part of it is the carrot on a stick thing. Sort of this unknown of what it would be worth once it hits the market. I see a similar type mentality on the Arena. People sometimes would rather sprint around not knowing where the finish line is and not knowing how that correlates to their actual earnings vs joining something like InLeo/Steem/Hive/Blurt .....etc and dealing with the immediate reality. I'm not going to say these systems are perfect but you get what I'm saying.
In regards to projects dying. The premise of a project dying from lack of liquidity or delisting on centralized exchanges is less of an issue now. With these DEXs that are AMM (Automated Market Makers) as people trade in and out it adds to the liquidity and the liquidity is sitting there so even if there isn't a sale for 5 days let's say and someone wants to buy or sell they don't have to wait for someone on the other side. THIS IS YUGE! All these legacy projects that don't have deep liquidity need to tokenize or attach themselves to these DEX AMM setups. That is part of the reason why I do like some of the stuff that the LeoFinance guys are doing. They have tokenized LEO on other chains like Arbitrum. I'm not sure if they are going to circle back around and figure out the Polygon and BSC side of things because they had previously tokenized there but then sort of didn't maintain the bridges or stepped away from it for a bit. I have taken all that into consideration for everything I'm building.
In regards to DASH that whole community connected with InLeo and they can get their rewards in DASH. It has been interesting to watch and in some respects it might be causing sell pressure to the LEO token currently since that has happened.
Arthur Hayes was hot on Filecoin but I was never blown away with their tech. ICP seemed to have a better solution but I tried to launch ZENA on ICP with a daily interest drip and launched 3 times and had wallet issues and was burning a lot of cycles. One night I said if I don't get it launched on here I'm launching on Solana and it errored out and I went with Solana.
DOGE isn't going away and it has solidified itself as a world reserve asset for several reasons. It's on every exchange essentially and you can do swaps on Thorchain direct to other assets like Avalanche, Cosmos, ETH, BTC, BSC, LTC. Then a lot of the "Bitcoin ATMs" you can actually buy and sell assets like Litecoin and Dogecoin. Merge mined with LTC it actually makes buying Litecoin ASICS more profitable than going with the Sha256 miners for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash....etc.
Going back to some of the other memes that came up and then were being successful that were Dogecoin nock off type stuff. A lot of them did it out of burn mechanisms or actually getting off of Ethereum. Like Shiba Inu launched the Shiberium ecosystem so they drove demand with DeFi farming type stuff. Floki was trying to restrict supply with heavy burns. For a lot of the various memes to survive I would say there has to be various demand mechanisms pushed to a lot of them for it to perpetuate forward and has to be heavy on the community building aspect.
I have various thoughts about the way $ZENA has performed. Demand has to continued to be driven to it and ultimately the full picture won't be visible until part 2 and part 3 of this overall project is completed. $ZENA and California Dogecoin NFT holders will have super power eventually when we get to the Late March early April timeframe. So I have to keep moving towards that and it is easier said than done.
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