Self Isolation Day 14

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March 16th 2020

A secret report today states that this Coronavirus might carry on until spring 2021. Yikes. I'm starting to have doubts about getting my holiday to Northern Italy - why didn't I go for the refundable option! I'm learning my lesson though about making plans too far in advance. What did John Lennon say about life and other plans?

In my e-community quite a few people have become ill, however they have been saying with relief how mild it is. Nothing to worry about. Sure, we know roughly 80% of cases present as mild, it is the 20% that are severe or very severe that must be the focus. The handling of this enormous influx of critically ill patients must be the focus. This crisis is going to expose how very underfunded and overstretched the National Health Service (NHS) actually is. Our leaders have had ample time to prepare, but how unprepared the NHS is remains to be seen. When a country's health service is already on life support the price will be measured in needless death and suffering.

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The NHS was founded in 1948 by a Labour Government who beat a surprised Winston Churchill after World War Two. Elected by generations who had experienced World War One, the Spanish Influenza, the turbulent twenties, the stock market crash, the Great Depression and finally World War Two. Prior to this poor people had to rely on charity and philanthropy. The creation of the NHS was extremely popular and certainly the most socialist of all British institutions. A free universal healthcare paid for by general taxation. However, from the outset the elite didn't want to pay for it. Practically since its inception it has faced ongoing cuts and efforts to control spending and now privatise it.

In my area the local hospital that serves a community of a quarter of a million people was slated for closure in 2016. The NHS Trust is bankrupt and tied into a Private Finance Initiative (PFI) contract with more clout than the mafia. It is only because of a community campaign that has challenged the decision, including a formal legal challenge and a pending judicial review which has delayed the Trust, and is the reason that the hospital still stands today.

The NHS has been slowly privatised over many years. A company called Capita is increasingly providing services. Behind the scenes David Rowland, of the centre for Health and the Public Interest, estimates that nearly 18% of NHS services are now run by private providers. Where cleaning has been outsourced hospitals rates of MRSA infection are a whopping 50% higher. A dossier leaked in the recent General Election in November 2019 revealed that despite government protestations the NHS is on the table in trade talks between the US and the UK. Further, the NHS is under immense pressure due to severe cuts in social care and welfare leading directly to more visits to hospital and longer stays.

The Guardian interviewed a senior consultant and his perception of how ready the NHS was to deal with the Coronavirus. He's worried that at present there is nowhere for the "social patients" who require discharge to nursing homes but have no place due to cuts. That beds are already at 98% capacity. That they don't have enough masks, goggles or staff.

We don't have enough isolation rooms or ventilators, which will be vital. Intensive care units will be the NHS’s most precious resource, but ours are close to full most of the time. We’re told of plans to increase ICU capacity. Yet you need a specially trained nurse for each ICU bed. Where will the extra staff come from?

When Boris Johnson talks about our wonderful NHS and how well-prepared it is, that’s bullshit. He either doesn’t have a clue or is trying to falsely reassure people.

He talks about the immediate emergency steps he believes the government should be taking. This includes being open with the public about why all this is happening. He also talks about the danger not only of staff falling ill but getting burnout from dealing with so much stress.

And when staff are overwhelmed emotionally they will not be able to give each other a hug or even put a reassuring arm round the shoulder because of the infection risk.

We may be lucky. But I fear and expect that we are going to end up in the same situation as Iran and Italy, where health services have struggled to cope.

The secret report, as referred to earlier, prepared by Public Health England for senior NHS officials, expects this virus to be circulating for the next 12 months. The report states candidly they expect 80% of the population will contract the virus and estimate up to 7.9 million people may require hospitalisation. It also outlines that testing is not to be offered to NHS staff "despite their key role". They predict a peak from the end of May until mid-June.

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To cope with the impending crisis the government has said it will call on retired doctors and nurses. Well, some have already been called back to work simply to deal with shortages. Many are older and may feel the risk is too high to them. Our front line health care workers are a vulnerable group. Promises that the government will give the NHS everything it needs remains to be seen. Despite promises of ring fencing NHS budgets have feared badly under a decade of austerity. The NHS is safe in their hands?? What happened to the Brexit bonanza?? Hotels and halls could be converted into makeshift hospital wards. No concrete plans as yet - presumably in the next few weeks. Maybe next month? Definitely after the Easter holidays - delay, delay, delay. Meanwhile, in contrast, Spain has just announced a nationalisation of private health care.

UK cases at 1543, dead at 37. (delayed/not really testing anyone figures). Me and Mr Saltycat went into the village with our masks on today. Just the surgical type. They smelt a bit but weren't too bad, could breathe and talk through them. I certainly wouldn't want to wear one all day. I ignored eye contact with everyone as the embarrassment factor is high. You can't blame people for being misinformed by their governments. It's frustrating that too many people haven't yet grasped the gravity of the situation.