Self Isolation Day 13

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March 15th 2020

For those new to this blog I am not seeking to instill fear or be a panic monger. Lots of people in Wuhan have wrote journals of their experience and it has helped. My stated aim is to observe and record events as they emerge. In my opinion we are all involved in an historic event. One way to tell this is the rapid speed at which events are unfolding. You have a couple of days off and you are running to keep up with UK news, let alone international.

Firstly, it's like waking up in a country that some body has designated as a science experiment. The UK's government's strategy to achieve herd immunity is foolhardy and playing with fire. Britain's chief science advisor, Patrick Vallance, is our equivalent of an American televangelist, except with none of the charm. Vallance was previously former president of Research and Development at GlaxoSmithKline, a company with a sordid history of bribing doctors to prescribe antidepressants to children.

Alberto Pezzali/Reuters

Meanwhile, Chris Whitty the UK chief medical officer provides the Stan Laurel in this not at all funny, double act. He has been totally lauded across the mainstream media. Appointed by the Conservatives in June 2019, he is handily an expert on infectious diseases, but he is obviously a party man and this was a political appointment. This is as much about politics as it is about science. A fierce critic of this herd immunity policy Professor John Ashton has been shut down in several TV interviews over the weekend and accused of making this political. When "experts" are publicly challenging the government's coronavirus policies is no wonder the public's trust is eroded.

It will come as no surprise to most of the people reading this blog but in the background providing modelling and data is Sage the government's "independent" Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. It didn't take much digging to find that this group comes under the umbrella of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). Could it be the UK is focused on mitigating the economic impact? Could this explain its callous attitude?

Herd Immunity

The policy of creating herd immunity has come under fire from numerous directions. The assumptions that underpin the strategy are flawed to say the least. 60% herd immunity may be a vast underestimate, based as it surely is on a fairly low R0. Realistically 70-75% is a closer figure for herd immunity. The demographics of the UK are that a high percentage fall into the vulnerable category. The UK have announced a plan for the over 70s to go into isolation - but not for another few weeks. Plenty of time to catch the Coronavirus then. The government are also working on the assumption that the Coronavirus will disappear when the weather gets warmer. This is a supposition only at this moment in time. Whilst the idea that a vaccine is imminent is wishful thinking.

The World Health Organization has criticised the UK government for being out of kilter with other countries. The Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesushas has said;

The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.

There has been pushback back against the WHO and other countries. Professor Mark Woolhouse from Edinburgh University said they lacked an "exit strategy" from a lock down situation. Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (where Chris Whitty is a consultant), says about China, "they cannot sustain them indefinitely". Another indicator that economics comes first. My local MP ascribed Italy's current healthcare crisis to its employment of lock down measures. As well as asserting that the UK government is thinking ahead to an expected second wave of this virus.

© Can Stock Photo/EpicStockMedia

Dr Margaret Harris made the point that scientists do not know enough about the virus to say whether theories around people coming immune to it are correct. In an open letter yesterday hundreds of scientists have warned that this response is risking more lives than necessary. Delaying restrictions in a bid to achieve herd immunity, they argue, will put the NHS under more pressure and stress. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the Lancet said the government was, "playing roulette with the public".

Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard's Chan School of Public Health, William Hanage, thought at first, noting how witty us Brits can be, that this was satire. He makes the point that it is impossible to restrict this outbreak to a certain age group. He writes;

Think of all the people who work in healthcare, or old people's homes. You don't need many introductions into settings like these for what we might coyly call "severe outcomes".

He goes on further to state that this is not a flu pandemic and to expose vulnerable people to a virus now in the service of a hypothetical future. Are they supposed to lock themselves away for six months until a second (so far entirely imaginary) wave has been averted?

Whilst the government are delaying their response in a deliberate effort to spread the virus to create herd immunity. Others have taken the decision out of the government's hands. Therefore numerous football associations have met to cancel matches. Both the London and Edinburgh marathons have been postponed. Universities up and down the country are closing campuses. The Catholic Church is holding online mass. These are just the higher profile events, this is bound to be replicated soon at local levels.
The National Education Union has drafted a strongly worded letter urging school closures. However, as this may take of an estimated 3% off GDP the government are dragging their feet on this one. The Health Minister (standing in for the Secretary of Health who's ill, and the Under Secretary of Health who's also ill) could only look like a fish on TV yesterday as she repeated "taking the right steps at the right time". This is a government that is in grave danger of falling behind the curve and having to rush to keep up performing one U-turn after another.

Opinion polls profess that the majority of the British public support the government's approach. According to You Gov 38% of the population are unconcerned about the catching the virus but this rises to 45% for those over 65. 43% see it as a major threat to the country, which rises to 50% for the over 65 demographic. The You Gov data also reveals a substantial increase in people taking measures into their own hands to protect them from the virus. 61% are now washing their hands more thoroughly ( or washing their hands!), and 30% are refraining from touching items in public. 24% are avoiding public places, but this crashes to 1% when asked if they are wearing a face mask.

Credit NB Press Ltd

Not surprising given the government's approach there is a clear age divide. In UK cities young people have been out in scantily clad wear to defy the Coronavirus. With all the certainty of youth that they are immortal, and armed with the knowledge they are a very low risk group, they have headed out en masse to enjoy the nightlife. Their rallying cry of live for today we all have to die sometime. Talking to a twenty something recently they looked shocked when I opined that the concert they were headed to next week will probably as not be cancelled. They looked further askance when it dawned on them that Eurovision might not take place either. Still, it's St Paddy's day next week so plenty of opportunity to catch the virus.

UK cases at 1372 with 35 dead. (Note these are delayed by at least 24 hours. Plus, as part of herd immunity strategy they are not actually testing anyone unless they get taken into hospital. Still I am continuing to report the figures as part of the historical record. Make of them what you will). In further news the Queen has left Buckingham Palace to take refuge in one of her castles, make of that what you will! too! Anecdotally, I have heard many reports of people fighting the crowds in the shops today.