On your marks, get set, DUMP!?

in OCD5 years ago

So tomorrow is the big day, https://hive.io/ opens its doors, and that is approximately 17 hours time.

But, when is the STEEM-HIVE, 1-1 drop?


image.png
Not financial advice!

I don't know for sure, but it will likely become fairly clear as I suspect STEEM will be sold hard into the market.

This will be mostly the speculation STEEM, as many accounts are currently part way through a 13 week power-down cycle, but there is enough of it about in Steem wallets to make quiet a splash if it heads for the exchanges.

Below are the top 200 accounts holding liquid STEEM at present. I did consider removing a couple of the exchanges, but it might be interesting to see what happens there too over the next 24 hours.

I'll run the same query tomorrow and get the total figure again for a comparison.

Any guesses on how much STEEM will remain from the 74,027,928.48 currently sitting in these accounts?

AccountSTEEMSBD
upbitsteem26306736.713499052.61
bittrex13679262.66479258.175
rap7tq6vu58ujg7587571.8210
huobi-pro3723757.31656.327
huobi-withdrawal3688799.1850.004
bithumbsend13585867.7730
user.dunamu1464980.87833217.427
hot.dunamu1194863.678190665.242
binance-hot954223.2263.732
databass525653.1710.14
my-2-cents518789.8440
korbit2506326.3910
omlakshmiom457429.4920
liujing440862.0840
muchfun427289.420.103
darthknight300972.90
hendrikdegrote300962.00595.114
blocktrades243600.9088482.381
microwave2250620.006
dele-puppy222934.5620.019
another199218.20.006
ipromote197886.797208.652
newsflash184367.719245.512
compa2180404.6410
bitvavo173566.7817.589
smooth-a170932.69658027.019
gopax-deposit168231.5441095.322
xxxxxxxxxx162143.34131.018
compa11161063.56916516.17
amcq159850.005263.989
hitbtc-exchange146086.1561222.275
patipati136480.0410.001
agentib133693.1280
shai-2131366.870
renohq111232.7920.01
sm-usd110333.667531.09
suonghuynh109103.9450.468
diahla31106980.4190.002
ctrl-alt-nwo100832.0281754.139
a93691046.57924.8
noisy90168.5460
dtube90044.8443070.314
changelly89823.8612002.471
veritassapere86192.210.517
compa881968.5310
cherrytomato281877.5490
aizensou76066.870
coinpayments.net70872.8181885.658
hr169759.5591356.841
rudex69347.976925.395
crypto198468732.1290
airbud2368360.7114.209
goku167174.5710.007
me-tarzan66299.08525758.188
tang62887.0830
msp-finance61701.681877.229
zoom59236.745.221
experty-official57540.3830.002
meow55774.3130.008
fiercedragon55240.5440
dawafisher53914.9690
lanhange52475.1380
bigbanginfinity45656.63542.995
kalvas45012.2130
wackou44953.08206.434
thevil43626.367165.742
gilead42343.730.008
harpagon42121.92.873
grandpawhale41893.1063.54
luckygamesio41266.1693065.619
mys41030.8390.297
matt-a40802.275115.51
verodato40107.44217.249
mediaguy40011.4051.252
kpd-202039135.380
richman38631.167351.91
steemmonsters37495.074301.839
oracle-d37205.090
fenghuang37102.86218.277
xiknybuc36076.80825.749
leon-fu35687.9050.008
terra35409.0310
albrite35076.170
roryswright35049.9710
fminerten33005.1931.024
leemikyung32780.513427.302
steempty31948.3211.037
kitten31711.5550.008
arhag31653.271260.85
kham201831474.60
destbest30898.320.542
qualiaspace30553.03826595.203
steempower30345.4791835.114
lakers300000.47
southorange29295.90.002
cutemachine28052.533152.579
cecil041427704.19326818.982
peakcredit27492.446351.296
theoretical27327.25512
steemslotgames-l270000
stani1230226952.960.002
gregketterman26786.6390.1
twodollars26547.87676.902
trogdor25927.30
lukewearechange25784.9064240.912
travellit25600.4270.007
plantedtank24674.0280.067
thewealthunit24184.3520.921
eeqj23809.8250
hitbtc-payout23669.0014918.264
kdj23645.565155.597
kenedy081623354.1160.002
kotori22788.3780.017
domino22692.3393.612
markimchi22497.490.002
nobody66622470.0980
coreabeforekorea22349.6252.278
danbain22076.42441.435
sagoda22001.2950.017
baja-pete21984.6790
albensilverberg21972.581369.303
monobyte21843.9830.004
action1021678.3710.002
mrosenquist21341.46314.597
onepagex21145.50765.737
lxteem20948.9580.017
sammivo20853.7862.92
gcalex20667.69215.405
benefactor20571.9140.001
sm-deck20225.497232.297
patipatipati20087.13974.49
helloplease20006.1920.002
steemit6020000.001387.019
shinebright19800.11646.8
sct.admin19781.0420
reseller19665.6940
gentibus19621.1940
deuksoo8419575.9162.328
nathan19510.1330.019
hkdev40419422.2160
davidburke19254.6490
vjanma18899.5370.001
wales18813.3310
steemslotgames-d18643.8659.479
nnnarvaez18438.7420
skradmin18320.2620.007
romedog18192.4170.011
qutritsystems17930.290.001
justtryme9017750.3140.196
grx12117746.9570
marijuana17635.5810.009
lmd7117546.4130
amosbastian17534.5071371.748
levfevzi17395.1680
eobot17331.38.03
keregnier30217330.0140
taker17193.307535.581
lukestokes.mhth17085.6710
cyonic17000.232.015
flamingirl16799.612195.025
bvba16744.7910
bhuz16596.58115000
lxcteem16354.190.009
braead6516321.7611.159
essejparr16039.8591.049
sct.kpsteem16019.9910
alpha15973.1230
nkkb15940.9690
winwinwin15621.34942.857
kraftswerk15557.05729.847
wikitree15484.064251.28
motoengineer15453.141054.226
marcelhattingh15402.8360.014
epicdice15372.9860.14
asbear15153.4147.186
dollarvigilante15063.4030
sonamoo15026.0570.299
hibriguy15003.9880.001
sunghaw14912.6190.001
clauca2314849.5610.015
mining4bacon14759.2760.157
drsteem14701.7060.006
kryptogames14680.37347.559
mohammedfelahi14673.2338.831
guyfawkes14629.043250.227
cryptonate14510.52712.426
self-power.com14479.5670
smooth-b14451.697110.656
canaca14447.390
ats-david14401.1393.231
bonface14276.28231.33
washthehogs14223.910
oroger14152.3623115.962
bitcoiner14148.8144.016
veganomics14133.6170.001
complexring14117.23625.675
upbituserwallet14075.09140
spas13933.1020.003
inceptionally13880.9620
dariodp13838.2710.002

Personally, I have very little liquid STEEM at present (sold mine way to early on this recent pump), but if I did have enough to take seriously, I know which accounts on this list I'd be watching.

Good luck all, it's going to be an interesting day tomorrow!

Cheers

Asher

Sort:  

Bites nails.

I think I will sell a little but we'll see how hard it crashes, slow powerdowns and all. If Justin does a HF with 1-day powerdown we'll have to sell quickly though :P

Do you have your trading boots on? :)

Good point re:insta powerdown, will need to keep any eye out for that one which will cause some sizable fluctuations I think!

I'm a stubborn old bastard. I won't power down before we fork, then it'll be one of my last few transactions on this chain.

Fair enough. That action could well start later today then.

A bit of a shame, but the changes bring new opportunity. I hope the Splinterlands cards are coming along too - any news on SM and S-E?

SM will stay put for now. They have an announcement on their blog.
Same for SE. It's on a separate side chain, so no movement for now

I moved some BTC into steem just for the airdrop. As soon as they take that snapshot, it's going back into btc.

Fair. Hopefully you'll be able to get it back over to BTC before any major dumps begin!

I made the trade at like $0.13, so I have some wiggle room. Hopefully I can get back out at around $0.30 though. That'd be a nice parting gift. lol

Sure is, looking forward to seeing how things go :)

Thanks for putting this list together @abh12345. It will be very interesting to see what it looks like in about 24 hours ...

"Any guesses on how much STEEM will remain from the 74,027,928.48 currently sitting in these accounts?"

I don't know how easy it is to change your SQL statement to get the STEEM total period and also compare that. Earlier I added 2,500 to it ...

A good idea :)

83,221,603.479 in total, the majority held in the top 10 or so accounts which does include some exchanges. I'll take a look at the totals tomorrow, with and without some 'key' accounts.

Cheers and good luck!

Great. Thank you sir!


P.S. That's 88.95% held in 200 accounts, in this "decentralized" blockchain ...👎

Well the exchanges will cover many accounts, and this is liquid, but I do see where you are going :)

As I mentioned to my friend Ash and to you @roleerob many times; decentralization is a myth. However, that doesn’t mean we won’t fight. We fight the good fight knowing the fact. Because it ain’t about the money!

The only problems we can really solve in a satisfactory manner are those
that finally admit a nicely factored solution.
-- E. W. Dijkstra, The humble programmer

We control complexity by building abstractions that hide details when
appropriate. We control complexity by establishing conventional
interfaces that enable us to construct systems by combining standard,
well-understood pieces in a ``mix and match'' way. We control complexity
by establishing new languages for describing a design, each of which
emphasizes particular aspects of the design and deemphasizes others.
-- Alan J. Perlis

We remember what we learn when we care about performing better and when
we believe that what we have been asked to do is representative of
reality.
-- Roger Schank, Engines for Education

The only thing a man should ever be 100% convinced of is his own
ignorance.
-- DJ MacLean

It is better to be quiet and thought a fool than to open your mouth and
remove all doubt.
-- WikiHow

It is impossible to sharpen a pencil with a blunt axe. It is equally
vain to try to do it with ten blunt axes instead.
-- Edsger Dijkstra

Philosophy: the finding of bad reasons for what one believes by
instinct.
-- Brave New World (paraphrased)

Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its
victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under
robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies, The robber baron's
cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated;
but those who torment us for own good will torment us without end, for
they do so with the approval of their own conscience.
-- C.S. Lewis

It is practically impossible to teach good programming to students that
have had a prior exposure to BASIC: as potential programmers they are
mentally mutilated beyond hope of regeneration.
-- Edsger Dijkstra

Whatever is worth doing at all, is worth doing well.
-- Earl of Chesterfield

Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans.
-- John Lennon

Programmers are in a race with the Universe to create bigger and better
idiot-proof programs, while the Universe is trying to create bigger and
better idiots. So far the Universe is winning.
-- Rich Cook

That is one of the most distinctive differences between school and the
real world: there is no reward for putting in a good effort. In fact,
the whole concept of a "good effort" is a fake idea adults invented to
encourage kids. It is not found in nature.
-- Paul Graham

The only thing a man should ever be 100% convinced of is his own
ignorance.
-- DJ MacLean

Natives who beat drums to drive off evil spirits are objects of scorn to
smart Americans who blow horns to break up traffic jams.
-- Mary Ellen Kelly

Within a computer natural language is unnatural.
-- Alan J. Perlis (Epigrams in programming)

Lisp has jokingly been called "the most intelligent way to misuse a
computer". I think that description is a great compliment because it
transmits the full flavor of liberation: it has assisted a number of our
most gifted fellow humans in thinking previously impossible thoughts.
-- Edsger Dijkstra, CACM, 15:10

I think that a lot of programmers are ignoring an important point when
people talk about reducing code repetition on large projects.
Part of the idea is that large projects are intrinsically wrong. That
you should be looking at making a number of smaller projects that are
composable, even if you never end up reusing one of those smaller
projects elsewhere.
-- Dan Nugent

One of the main causes of the fall of the Roman Empire was that–lacking
zero–they had no way to indicate successful termination of their C
programs.
-- Robert Firth

A hacker on a roll may be able to produce–in a period of a few
months–something that a small development group (say, 7-8 people) would
have a hard time getting together over a year. IBM used to report that
certain programmers might be as much as 100 times as productive as other
workers, or more.
-- Peter Seebach

Just like carpentry, measure twice cut once.
-- Super-sizing YouTube with Python (Mike Solomon, [email protected])

If debugging is the process of removing bugs, then programming must be
the process of putting them in.
-- Edsger W. Dijkstra

Philosophy: the finding of bad reasons for what one believes by
instinct.
-- Brave New World (paraphrased)

Some people suggest that machines would be friendlier if input could be
in a natural language. But natural language is probably the worst kind
of input because it can be quite ambiguous. The process of retrieving
information from the computer would be so time-consuming that you would
be better off spending that time getting the information directly from
an expert.
-- Gary Kildall (inventor of CP/M, one of the first OS for the micro).

An expert is, according to my working definition "someone who doesn't
need to look up answers to easy questions".
-- Eric Lippert.

The important thing is not to stop questioning.
-- Albert Einstein

No matter how much you plan you’re likely to get half wrong anyway. So
don’t do the ‘paralysis through analysis’ thing. That only slows
progress and saps morale.
-- 37 Signal, Getting real

Good coders code, great reuse.
-- http://www.catonmat.net

Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.
-- Colin Powell

Talkers are no good doers.
-- William Shakespeare, "Henry VI"

The only problems we can really solve in a satisfactory manner are those
that finally admit a nicely factored solution.
-- E. W. Dijkstra, The humble programmer

Give up control. You never really had it anyway.
-- How to fail: 25 secrets learned through failure

In order to understand what another person is saying, you must assume
that it is true and try to find out what it could be true of.
-- George Miller

Only bad designers blame their failings on the users.
-- unknown

There are many ways to avoid success in life, but the most sure-fire
just might be procrastination.
-- Hara Estroff Marano.

Photography is painting with light.
-- Eric Hamilton

The purpose of abstraction is not to be vague, but to create a new
semantic level in which one can be absolutely precise.
-- Edsger Dijkstra

Ecoute, crois en ton projet... Implique toi à fond... Trouve des aspects
innovants pour te distinguer des autres. Tu verras que tu te feras
remarquer très facilement...
-- Khaled Tangao

In OO, it's the data that is the "important" thing: you define the class
which contains member data, and only incidentally contains code for
manipulating the object. In FP, it's the code that's important: you
define a function which contains code for working with the data, and
only incidentally define what the data is.
-- almkgor, on reddit

A charlatan makes obscure what is clear; a thinker makes clear what is
obscure.
-- Hugh Kingsmill

No one is all evil. Everybody has a good side. If you keep waiting, it
will comme up.
-- Randy Pausch

L’art qui satisfait le besoin le plus impérieux sera toujours le plus
honoré.
-- Charles Baudelaire, Conseils aux jeunes littérateurs.

Do not accept anything because it comes from the mouth of a respected person.
-- Buddha

Being a programmer is the same way. The only way to be a good programmer
is to write code. When you realize you haven't been writing much code
lately, and it seems like all you do is brag about code you wrote in the
past, and people start looking at you funny while you're shooting your
mouth off, realize it's because they know. They might not even know they
know, but they know. So, yes, doing what you love brings success, and by
all means, throw yourself a nice big party, buy yourself a nice car,
soak up the adulation of an adoring crowd. Then shut the fuck up and get
back to work.
-- Sincerity Theory

Je crois au flooding.
-- Karim BAINA (en parlant du dailogue avec les administrations)

Oh interesting stats ;-)
I will be back tomorrow and check the difference ;-)

Ciaoooo

Si señor!!!
Hivemitri, LOL!
I don't think I will rebrand :-/

Yeah, tough one indeed. Is Mr plastic fantastic moving to the Hive then? Perhaps a little bit of both?

Yes, I'm moving to HIVE...
https://steemit.com/hive/@steemitri/steemitri-the-mannequin-200th-post-on-steem-see-you-on-hive

... but I'm curious to see what will happen here on STEEM. Just read @steemitblog's last post.
You?

Yeah I'll be moving on, but undecided as yet how to play my STEEM stake. Don't think I'll post on Steem but may curate - if there is anything/anyone worth supporting.

Will check @steemitblog ...

I got myself a very tiny amount of liquid Steem. For the most part I view it being worthless once i get my Hive tokens. Anything above that is great.

Starting off at 0 value will mean you won't be disappointed I guess. I think there will be STEEM pumps from Justin, so it could be worth holding some to play with.

While that be great since I have a while to power it all down. I have a feeling it's not going go that way once he has full control and does what he wants.

Wonder if he got scared of the impending greatness of newsteem (soon to be Hive) and though I can't have a rival with all these SMT, DAO, Communities, etc going on - I must drive this coin into the ground!

Well, tough luck Sunny boy!

As long as you have prepared for the worst, this makes good sense to me :D

It's gonna crash hard but strangely, I think it might bounce back despite crazy Justin's censoring antics

I am buying at the top as it is going to go much higher!

Always buy at the top!!! :0D

I am buying at
The top as it is going
To go much higher!

                 - tarazkp


I'm a bot. I detect haiku.

Yeah STEEM could well become one for the traders, which should suit those who are powerdowning and out :)

I am hoping it retains some value on the way through that long 13 weeks!!

It will definitely crash after the snapshot bit here's to Justin doing some shady shift to make it pop a little so it looks unharmed whilst we sell it :0)

heh, that is the hope. Let's hope the chilli undies bring some luck!

We live in an interesting time! Thanks for the statistics!

We do indeed :)