C-virus Diary - Stepping up the trade war?
Self isolation day 7
March 9th 2020
A really big thank you to everyone who has been following this post, it means a lot to me. Writing this is helping me with my sanity and in a small way you are helping me keep in touch with the world. So thanks.
Not a lot of readers yesterday which I hope, was because most of you had better things to do on a Sunday. Plus maybe a review of the Sunday papers might have been a tad boring? My excuse is that it fits with the additional purpose of this journal as an historical record.
As a student of history I know the past is replete with conspiracies, and I hate the current derogatory use of the term "conspiracy theorist". There are plenty of theories out there about this C-virus, there is also the simple narrative as presented to the majority of people, usually supported by unnamed experts. In time, historians may be able to untangle the truth. Unfortunately, as history is written by the winners this is an uphill challenge. I hope in my own very small way to provide an account of how this situation develops in my area.
That doesn't mean I can't speculate. Previously I have examined the possibility that this C-virus is being used as cover for the unfolding financial crisis. A crisis that is actually front running the C-virus as fear and panic take over the markets. Now I am wondering if China, along with Russia, have engineered this to take down the West.
I am not a scientist. This C-virus may have originated naturally in a live market (it wouldn't be the first zoonotic virus in the world). On the other hand, and you rarely see it mentioned unless to debunk a conspiracy theory, Wuhan is home to China's only level 4 bio lab. The swine flu, for example, escaped from a lab and historically it's not the only one.
There is a real divide between those who think this is all hype and those who are taking it deadly serious. The hype side make much of comparing the C-virus to the flu. The flu is a serious illness that kills many people every year and we have not that long marked the centenary of the Spanish flu. The point they make is that we are not worrying about that, so we shouldn't worry about this. That it is the fear and panic that will cause the damage. So developing this approach and applying it to my working theory, the Chinese want people in the West to panic and basically slit their own economic throats. On the other hand if it is as bad, or worse than expected, the end result is the exact same.
Following from the above is the question of data. Is China over reporting their figures or under reporting them. The MSM seems to be accepting Chinese data without question. Indeed, there has been widespread praise for China's handling of the situation. Hubei province is in lockdown now for approaching 7 weeks. Satellite images show China's carbon emissions have fallen off the cliff. Production has collapsed. Quality information is hard to get due to censorship. Either way, this has been very expensive. A pretty enormous gamble to take down the West?
Now it looks like Russia and Saudi are gunning to take down the US fracking industry. The Chinese decision to lock up shop is a key factor in the fall of an already over inflated oil price. Given the huge amount of debt the fracking industry is in they need a much higher price to service the debt. In addition the US has forged ahead with its foreign policy based on being the world's largest oil producer. Already a fallacy, and now one posed to disintegrate.
As the trade war has escalated there has been increasing anti-Chinese propaganda. The increasing debt burden owed to China by the US has created an unbalanced relationship. On the surface the US has been clearly the aggressor, whilst accusing China of being the parasite. Tensions have been building. Recently Japan has overtaken China as the holder of the most US treasuries. Has China been dumping them, or would that be considered an act of war by the US. In around 2005/6 China threatened to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks. This was one of the things that led to the 2008 financial crisis. The theory here is that China can cripple their enemy all the while blaming it on a virus. Does that sound farfetched?
There are plenty of other conspiracy theories out there. Some pretty fantastic like that the C-virus has had HIV introduced into it. Other conspiracy ideas out there include those that think this is the testing of a US weapon (as aired on Russian TV). That it is completely fake and the result of 5G. To name a few. The abundance of conspiracy theories is a reflection of the declining trust in our institutions.
The counter balance is honest, citizen reporting. I can report for today that I went to my pharmacist to collect my meds. It was very quiet in the commuter village I live in, only 2 OAPs in the shop and the shelves displayed paracetamol. Everything normal here. My pharmacist believes the chances of getting the C-virus are very low, I currently rank them as low. On the way out I could hear her coughing.
In UK news the FTSE 100 is in freefall. It closed today below 6,000 with a 7.25% decline. The 10 year treasury bond hit another record low to stand at 0.14%, whilst the 2 year is barely above zero. The pound has actually risen against the dollar (proving how weak the dollar is). Lest we forget, the UK has another disease to contend with called Brexitisis, otherwise it might have risen higher.
Oil is the truly big story of today. Given the conflict between Russia and Saudi - not to mention the US application of sanctions on Rosneft about a month ago - oil looks likely to drop further to maybe $25. Thankfully, the UK did not get into fracking, too many earthquakes! British Airways though, like other carriers, expected to be hit by a steep decline in travel will not benefit from the colossal collapse in oil prices either due to financial hedges taken out. Sounds to me like more financial scams and more bail out requests to come.
UK cases at 319 with 4 deaths (again delayed figures from yesterday).