What role does luck play in trading?

in Project HOPE3 years ago

Hello Project Hope community, here I am again with a topic I could say that a little thoughtful about the world of cryptocurrency, especially trading. I have commented on other opportunities, my first contact with this world of Blockchain was almost 4 years ago, when I was interested in trading cryptocurrencies, the truth is that I started and I did not do well, I did not have much knowledge of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, the truth is that I was totally lost in these issues, however I started, and obviously, it was almost impossible for me to do well, unless the great luck was on my side.

Well, at that time of beginnings I told myself that there was a lot of luck in this trading, I came to think that it was a kind of bet, and that winning would depend on whether "I was right in my bet if the price went down or up". But, little by little I was learning some things and I realized that I was very wrong in thinking that way, there are those who have very good analysis and have a high rate of effectiveness in their operations.


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However, it is impossible that we can be winners in all operations, the market seems to have life and makes its movements, some we can predict them from the analysis but others simply not, it is not easy, especially because there are many factors that can make prices move in certain directions, many that we can not even imagine, some fundamental news, for example.

In view of this reality, even when I trade and I can say that I have not done badly in this aspect, there is still some of that thought in me that makes me ask the question: What role does luck play in all this trading?.

I do an analysis that in theory allows me to have a good degree of effectiveness, if the technique works for you, you should not change it unless it is to improve it, however, there are times when indicators, market studies, volume, everything comes together in the fact that a price will go down or up and will allow you to get a good profit margin, and yet something happens that breaks your forecasts.


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That's why I say, those fortuitous events that make a price collapse and go totally against everything that a technical analysis tells you, I think they are part of what I could say luck (good or bad) became present. I know that this trading really is something that you could say is financial or mathematical, however, it is not something exact, considering the different factors that we contemplate and the others that we can not even know that will affect, it is almost impossible to say that luck has nothing to do in this profession, or maybe it does.

I would like to know what you think about it. Greetings.

Thank you very much for reading my post.

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Greetings friend @jossevas217, very accurate your article could not come at the best time for me, because I had the same perception as you had about trading, I thought it was a matter of luck but if you can generate from a technical analysis of the market a good operation that leaves a good profit depending on the investment made.

 3 years ago 

Dear @josevas217

Interesting choice of topic Jose. Upvoted already :)

Truth be told, I absolutely dislike to rely on luck in almost anything I do. But it's sometimes so hard not to depend on luck when it comes to trading.

Recently I've been trying out new approach to day trading. I focus on several tokens listed on Binance (assuming none of them are scam). And those tokens which I'm focusing on have usually quite low volumes and often are rapidly jumping up (supply squeeze).

So I'm buying small amounts of those tokens and right away setting up sell order, which is 20-30% higher than purchasing price. My assumption is that if any of those tokens will "shoot up" all of suddent then I will dance in happiness.

It's perhaps a risky strategy, since I don't even bother to read about those tokens. So in a way I'm investing "blindly". But I only allocate several % of my limited capital into that kind of strategy. Because this tactic rely very much on luck.

And the problem I see is ... that so far this strategy is bringing me the best results. Comparing to any other strategy I've tried.

Cheers, Piotr

 3 years ago 

Well I can say that in trading nothing is left to chance.
I think to leave to luck is to buy a lottery ticket and be lucky to win it, that is luck, I do not buy lottery tickets,
Now as far as what you're doing, that's not tranding, that's 'holding' a coin.
I am absolutely sure that you are aware of the basic principles of doing what you are talking about, and one of those principles is that you should invest what you are somehow willing to lose, if you have that clear, you have already won the way..,

 3 years ago 

Wow. Friend in my opinion, luck does not play any role in trading we can not leave anything to luck that is only for people who do not prepare for it. And they think that hopefully they can earn a lot of money, and it is not like that. You have to study a lot to learn to read patterns and read statistics and study the fundamentals of behavior.

So here luck is not tried.

I have always wondered how to make sure that luck does not interfere in the analysis, and with this post I realize that I was not so wrong in thinking that it is practically impossible. External factors will always be present, it is inevitable. But definitely knowing how to analyze the market is better than leaving EVERYTHING to chance.

Hello friend @josevas217

I might be wrong, but more than luck it's a matter of probabilities, where the more you participate the higher your probability of get hits. Wow you already have 4 years in this world, in retrospect I think that if you analyze everything you have lived and learned, the road has been very fruitful, but precisely because you have participated and increased your probability of get hits.

Best regards, be well.

I would say that luck plays zero percent in trading, investments have to be previously thought out and a lot of work has to be put into the jobs we invest in, so I think luck does not apply.

Greetings my friend and thanks for sharing.

To me trading is a game of chance and cannot be 100% predictable. I believe in luck some people start trading without any knowledge about indicators or such they merely guess and it works especially in future trading.

You are right actually sometimes luck plays a major role in trading because you can Neva be 100% accurate when trading due to some factors in the system like fake out, fake reversal and all that I really see reasons with you on this thanks for your wonderful article

hello @josevas217,
I personally believe that although luck is important in this activity, the truth is that if you are not able to read the market correctly you will most likely lose money, on the other hand having an action plan that allows you to minimise your losses, you have to remember that an action plan is a tool that few use, generally ordinary investors gamble money while skilled investors make investments based on information and with the protection of an investment plan that limits their losses.

Hello friend, the truth is that I don't think it's a matter of luck, but of preparation, study, being constant and disciplined. I think those are the bases for almost anything we want to achieve, obviously if you didn't have knowledge before it was difficult for you to do well. Greetings.