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RE: Some recent footage from Hong Kong

in #hongkong5 years ago

Was this necessary?

I understand the philosophy and support it, but there is always a line you shouldn't be crossing.

I think you underestimate how huge this Hong Kong crisis is.

I live in China and often visit hong kong with friends there. I'm very up to date on the situation.

What people don't recognize, however, is that this is a unique position in the world. China and anything like it has never happened before. The police and military of HK could turn its back against the CCP and join the people, and it would still be ineffective because the CCP literally own their military in the mainland which by size makes efforts of HK little more than a dead pixel on a screen.

HK used to be significant in terms of economic contribution but now it's a fraction of China's overall economy.

The west is doing close to nothing, with who you would think are the closest allies, the UK, not even talking about it and just letting China do its thing. The US is making vague gestures but politicians are not openly talking about it at all to the mainstream.

Countries are doing nothing because they want to keep their profits which largely comes from China. HK is alone in this with some little whispering voices on Reddit and whatever muttering support on a casual level.

Chinas economy is not doing great at all, true, but those who tell you the country is on the verge of collapse are messing with you. This place has a life-time president, a one-party system, and the ability and freedom to manipulate their economy pretty much however they please, even if that means, like in the days of Mao Zedong, creating another 'Great Leap Foward'. This is entirely within their 'right' and ability.

I mean what do you think will happen just because HK is in the news a lot? Xi is going to bend over and be like 'ok you win guys, freedom for all!'?

I get the HK thing is huge, but I also get, as most HK people do, it's futile. That is sad, but we are powerless to anything

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If you can get past the firewall from China to uncensored news, I recommend the follow to get impartial news
https://www.hongkongfp.com/
https://www.hongkongwatch.org/

CGTN is not known for impartiality, likewise the South China Morning Post is now owned by Jack Ma from Alibaba, so is also indirectly controlled by China.

Yep I'm well aware of these but thanks - good for others to see this for sure. However there is yet to be a legitimate independent investigation, which is desperately needed. Hopefully sooner than later

Totally agree. But the governement won't want an independent investigation to dig into their dirt, despite it being all over the news. Perhaps the International Criminal Court would be our only last resort.

At this point it's pretty hard to conceal the actions of the police, that much is certainly true!

What happened to that man is terrible and should not have been done. However, with all due respect to you, your way of thinking is still wrong. If people were not willing to fight in the past there would be no liberty recognized anywhere.

As for your reply to understanding the crisis:

I have lived in Beijing for 5 years, I speak Mandarin Chinese and my ex-girlfriend was from Hong Kong, a place I regularly spend time at. I love mainland Chinese people, I also had an ex that was from Mainland China. I hope the very best for the people, the CCP is different and separate of the people.

China wants to appear strong, but only the weak really do that. The US military might is not for show, its hidden, while China shows their stuff off every day on subway TV screens. Its kind of like what people say about bitcoiners, if you show how much bitcoins you got in reality you don't own much.

What is happening in Hong Kong resembles the US revolutionary war in many ways. Everyone thought the redcoats couldn't lose until they did.

Your viewpoint that China is too powerful is historically inaccurate. People always think something can't happen until it does, and the historical record of nations indicates that revolutions, civil wars, genocides and other major events actually happen much more often than people want to believe. No state or system is truly ever stable.

You may live in mainland China, but I do not think you understand its economy well enough. China's internal economy feels good due to inflation rates that would make the US Fed scowl, while it tries to balance this out by export revenue that is dried up and tariffed to all hell.

All a US president (concerned with what their voters think) would have to do is wave that magic wand, declare sanctions and the CCP would crumble as the internal economy fell apart. The CCP has both internal and external issues and cannot afford to fight the Hong Kong war.

Let's briefly finish with a lesson from the US revolutionary war. Americans want to believe they were special, selected by the deity in the sky to win that war, and that's silly. It came down to logistics, although the British were the best, strongest, mightiest, richest and even had fancy Santa Clause jackets it was more expensive for them to fight that war than it was for the locals. As long as the Americans did not lose they were winning, and as long as the British did not win they were losing.

Logistics. The CCP can't win.

your way of thinking is still wrong

Not sure that's how opinions work, but sure.

People always think something can't happen until it does, and the historical record of nations indicates that revolutions, civil wars, genocides and other major events actually happen much more often than people want to believe.

Yes, historically this is true. But that argument only works when there is precedent, and there is nothing in history that even remotely resembles precendent of a nation 20% the population of the planet, run and controlled and grown at this alarming rate with this much technology... it's not even just China. The idea that the US can be toppled by protests is laughable. The right to bear arms is essentially the right to shoot oneself in the face if the military come rolling in.

Sure, it's feasible according to the laws of physics that a big enough protest could topple a government of this magnitude, but there is no precedent and thus no evidence that it ever will. The very idea of expecting it any time soon is just kinda wishful thinking, I'd say. We could see a slow, or eeven a rapid decline over the next few centuries which cause massive internal conflicts between sects of the politburo of the CCP, this could be a more likely cause of collapse. But a protest in a tiny city that contributes very little to the social fabric or economy... nah.

I do not think you understand its economy well enough

I think I am quite well acquainted (I've written about it somewhere deep in Steem before). I just know what is realistic, and at no point with the US people approve of $600billion trade being cut off entirely - including precious metals in which almost all of it resides in China, and basically lead a short spiral into war. Nobody would want this, not the US, China, nobody.

I know their economy is struggling but as I've written in my most recent post, there are no limits to what they can and will do to maintain power, as historically this is exactly what they do, from cappinig and shutting down financiial markets to control the flow of trade according to their whims, to manipulating the sentiment of bitcoins, banning and encouraging platforms, controlling how many homes families can have an how long they can own it, manipulating the housing market entirely; even banning people from coming into cities if they're from certain other places, and forcefully shifting farmers into industrialized factory lifestyles according to an intricate plan I forgot the details of. In the same vein came the Great Leap Forward, and for all its heinous and horrifying truths, China's economy boomed.

The final point once again referring to the US revolution, that was a time of muskets and small boats. It's is only similar to the current Chinese scenario in vocabulary only; revolution. Revolting against a state that controls nukes, aircraft carriers and intercontinental missiles, is kinda daft.

Unless you're referring to the US going to war again rather than the small city of Hong Kong, in which case, again, nobody wants that and nobody will do that. It's just not in the interest of anyone at all

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We can confirm that this particular burning was probably not by any of our undercover officers. The officers involved are on vacation.