【估值问题】关于加密资产估值的浅谈！How to value crypto asset? <Part 1>

Keywords: ICO, Token, Crypto, Valuation

Hello, my friends at Steemit.
Today I would like to share the summaries of my recent study in the valuation of the crypto asset, which is similar to the corporate valuation in terms of the fact that we don’t have perfect valuation models. Here is my consideration and summaries:
【Why we need to consider the valuation of crypto assets?】
In the perspective of investment, a transparent mechanism on pricing crypto assets is significant for investors as the reference on their investment decision, including crypto-currency, utility token, and crypto-securities, which are the major form of crypto asset.
In the perspective of value investing, investors have the desire to invest in the assets when the price is below their value and ultimately sell them for profit. Therefore investors are supposed to develop their own valuation system.
今天想和各位分享一下我最近在加密资产估值方面的学习心得，和企业估值一样，最理想的估值方法和模型暂时还不存在，以下是我的思考和总结：
【为什么要谈加密资产的估值？】
从投资的角度，加密资产投资市场需要更加公开透明的定价机制，不管是加密货币（Crypto-currency），代币（Utility token），还是证券化的加密货币（Crypto-securities），这三者是加密资产的主要存在形态。
从价值投资的角度（这里不是特指哥伦比亚大学商学院著名的价值投资理论），投资人希望在资产价格低于投资人心中价值进行投资，最后实现变现获利，因此投资人需要了解估值并且形成自己的估值体系。

【Can valuation method used for corporate valuation work for the crypto asset?】
In my point of views, they work in certain circumstances and it really depends on what is the intention for the valuation? Valuation is not a pure mathematics process, but a process of identifying the internal value with the key information. It is the value that most people are not surprised because it is within their expectation and it is the same when it comes to corporate valuation.
Discounted cash flow method and multiple method are the major valuation methods in corporate valuation but considering the uniqueness of crypto asset, it is better to improve the traditional valuation methods before they are applied.
【参考企业估值方法可行吗？】
我认为某些情况下是可以的，取决于目的是什么，价值评估不是单一的数学问题，而是综合重要的信息找到内在价值，也更像是找到一个符合大多数人认可的价值范围，而企业估值方法的目的也是这样（估值也是我研究生阶段研究的课题之一）。
比较常用的估值法有现金流折现法以及倍数法，但是加密资产有自身的特殊性，因此这两个方法都需要改良后才能使用。

【Findings of the experts and scholars】
I studied what was shared in the call conference for crypto valuation organized by CryptoOracle and read some papers. They are really inspired and here are my summaries:

Firstly, we are supposed to identify the value driver of the crypto asset which should be a golden principle for crypto-currency, utility token, and crypto-securities. Just as what Jay Pazos indicates in his paper: the value of utility token is originally subject to Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM). For example, it is the food market that the utility tokens rely on when the utility token is used to pay food.

Secondly, it matters to understand the factors affecting the value.
Taking liquidity for example, when one crypto is listed in more exchange platforms, an increase in price is expected. Value is not always equal to price, but higher liquidity does add value to the crypto when we consider liquidity as the only variable factor
Last but not least, pricing and valuation are different when it comes to the methodology.
When it comes to the pricing on the public cryptocurrency, it is advisable to estimate the price using the multiple method (e.g. price to trading volume).
But it is different for ICO, a very popular idea is to apply the mechanism of the Quantity Theory of Money using the Fisher Equation. Investors, like Chris Burniske and Jay Pazos, show the positive attitude towards this idea.
Other innovative ideas are proposed, such as to value the crypto by assuming that the value comes from the rotation from the gold or other assets which is based on an underlying assumption that investors in gold or other assets will shift investment to crypto.
Great, that’s all for today. More sharing about my findings and point of views will be followed very soon. Stay Tuned to my upcoming sharing in my channel.
【专家以及学者的研究发现？】
我看了CryptoOracle的针对加密货币的估值的电话会议讨论，以及一些学术论文，有以下小结和看法：
首先，无论是对加密货币，还是代币，还是证券化的加密货币，核心的原则是找到价值驱动的因素，就像对冲基金经理Jay Pazos在发现代币（Utility token）的价值主要取决于代币可以服务到的市场总容量（Serviceable Obtainable Market），比如可以购买食品的代币，其价值主要由食品市场容量决定等等。
第二，识别影响价值的因素很重要。
比如流动性，当某种加密货币可以在更多的交易平台上交易，他的价格往往会提升，虽然价格和价值不能划等号，但如果将流动性作为单一因素孤立来看的，更高的流动性确实赋予了加密货币更多价值空间。
第三，估值和定价的思路有所不同。
比如针对已上市的加密货币，可以考虑使用倍数法（比如价格与交易量的比率）评估价格的合理性。
然而针对拟ICO项目，主流的观点是参照基于货币平衡理论的费雪方程式估算加密货币的价值，这个观点的支持者包括Chris Burniske和Jay Pazos等。
也有其他一些比较创新的提法，比如考虑有多少黄金或者其他资产的价值转移到加密资产上，作为依据评估其价值。
今天先分享这么多，接下来我会继续分享更多我的发现以及我的想法，欢迎Steemit的伙伴们继续关注我的主页：）