The joke of predicting innovation

I've always been fascinated by the mind of the inventor. Unlike an engineer, designer or scientist the real inventor takes a gut feeling and works hard to make it a reality. While this sounds very noble I estimate fewer than a tenth of a percent survives the journey from the raw concept to a product. This is all it takes, with success only one in a thousand it will bring us small or large revolutions.

If you ask other inventors who are working on something very closely related they will be quick to point out the "obvious" flaws in the approach.

Asking experts or scientists trained in the specific field produces a much more ridiculous response. We have hundreds of laughable quotes from professionals who should have known better. There are even efforts to redesign the ridiculous remarks to make them sound more sensible.

If you want to know if something so obviously preposterous like heavier than air flying machines are possible you will need time, money and expertise and work really hard on it. If you fail in most cases still doesn't prove it is impossible, only if you succeed will you have an answer. When the Lord Kelvin's among us say it can not be done they are simply idiots who don't know what they are talking about.

Innovation is not for people who give up even before starting their investigation. That formula simply never produces any invention. It takes not an idiot but someone insane enough to take the dumb idea and run with it.

It all to often happens that promising data only makes people rage harder against an idea. Funds run out, proponents die, manufacturing never materializes etc etc All of this will be presented as proof the invention was a bad idea.

People think they are being objective but while we are great at fuzzy logic a good filter requires a good data set. As inventions are unique new things there is no data set available. Whatever your gut tells you is based on irrelevant data.

Asking shop keepers what innovation in shopping will look like creates an illusion of legitimacy. Many think for example that technology will make things go faster. (a popular misconception)

I remember a time when shop keepers (even supermarket employees) knew ALL of the prices of ALL of the products. I've seen ones who gazed over the counter and added up dozens of prices in a fraction of a second. Would one have told them about bar codes they would have looked at you in disbelief. "I would have to pick up and rotate each product and hold it in front of some electronic eye? You know how long that would take?" Merely giving them a cash register already slowed them down dramatically.

No doubt these people also thought shopping in the future would be faster. But the reality is that we now order stuff online and wait for it for days! This while in the old days we could take it home minutes after deciding to buy it.

Average people guessing what technology will bring in the future will forever be a joke. It will forever be as funny as that guy long long ago who suggested we could talk with people on the other end of the world though invisible waves. Imagine how funny that would sound to people at the time.

They are going to make boats out of metal and expect them to float!

hahaha!