Heuristics and biases series: An introduction

This is just a general introduction with basic examples. In the coming posts we will analyze different types of heuristics and biases that they cause, backed by real world examples. Exploring how our mind works can help us control some of our (subconscious) thought processes. In addition to that, it can help us make less mistakes in the decision-making processes and observe whether the desicions we made were based on real world evidence or subjective feelings. We will see how most of our frustrations and negative feelings are not caused by external factors, but rather the imperfections in the mechanism of the decision-making process.

The human mind is a marvelous phenomenon. Even though researchers have been studying the mind for decades the intricacies are still largely hidden from us. And yet, we have discovered certain mechanisms and patterns in which the mind works, both on a subconscious and conscious level. Contrary to the widely accepted belief the former might be more important to understand how our thoughts are formed and more importantly, why they are formed. It might be a bit unnerving to learn that we are not really masters of all of our decision, thought-processes and habits but rather subject to automatic thought processes activated by observed triggers in our environment.

What is a heuristic?

A heuristic technique, or simply heuristic is any approach to problem solving, learning, or discovery that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be optimal or perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals. We can call it a mental shortcut. The human brain uses heuristics all the time, everyday throughout our lives. It is not something we can consciously observe, nor something we can control. Heuristics are not necessarily bad, on the contrary, they are a part of the evolutionary architecture of the brain, allowing our brain to function seamlessly in our everyday lives. Heuristics allow our brain to make everyday, mundane decisions subconsciously based on the information available at the moment and in the process spend negligable amounts of energy. Imagine having to make each of the hundreds or thousands of the small decisions you make everyday deliberately and consciously. Your brain would be overwhelmed, not to mention how much time and energy it would waste by analyzing each unimportant piece of information.

Why do we mention heuristics if they are natural and helpful?

Well, heuristics are an evolutionary development, which means that they sometimes are not really suitable for the modern life and very often they produce biases in our thinking our thought patterns that don't objectively represent our environment and surroundings.
If somebody asks you to multiply 12x9, you will consciously engage in the task and try to produce an answer. If you are then asked to name 3 cities in Germany, Denmark or France, you will again, actively think of the answer and solve the task. The same goes for learning engineering, biology, reading literature, psychology, etc. These are completely conscious tasks, solved deliberately through active thinking.

Now, let's take an example of a well known heuristic, the affect heuristic. It is known that fast judgements are guided by subjective feelings of liking or disliking, with little deliberation on reasoning. It causes people to use one positive/negative fact about an object/action to judge the likely positivity/negativity of other facts about that object/action. The brain shortens the decision-making process and allows us to make a decision without extensive search for information. It is well documented that even experienced Wall Street investors or traders often pick stocks based on subjective feeling. A recent example is Tesla Motors. If financial data of Tesla was given to investors with the name of the company omitted, most would probably decline to invest in it. But since the company is intertwined with it's CEO and owner, Elon Musk, affect heuristic kicks in: „He is a genius“. The company stock price is a witness of the affect heuristic in action, causing investments based on feeling, rather than observable information. The same could be observed in the Internet Bubble in the 2000's. Instead of analyzing available information of the companies, people invested according to their liking/disliking of the companies (mass hype also played a role, of course).

Affect heuristic is often one of the cornerstones of prejudice towards other races and religions. It can bias us towards different groups and genders. Affect heuristics is one of the reasons why good-looking people often have it easier in life. It's also affects the so called Halo Effect, which we will discuss in the future.