Great, great analysis. There is nothing to add, you covered it, so I will just give you my opinion on where the price may head.

From a macro view, price has been range bound since 2015. If price close below $50.50 on the monthly chart below, I think price will go down to $37.50...which would the opportunity to buy.

If price closes on the monthly chart above $50.50, that would be a good sign that price may go back to the origin of the recent drop at $56.

Hope that helped.