No One Wants to Hear Bad News

A co-worker once told me she never watches the news because its always bad news.  I asked her if that applied to times when we were under a hurricane watch and she replied, "Oh, no. That's the only time I watch."  I asked why and after getting "stink eye," local for the look you get when you are being stupid (or disliked), she told me she would  only watch the news to get information on the coming storm.  It's funny how that works. 

As I mentioned in my Introduction, I am obsessed with predictive analytics. This means, I have a innate desire to know the future.  Seems silly, but for me, who wouldn't.  In my course of business, its critical we understand trends in our industry and the predictions we make from them affect everything from product design to how we organize our delivery channel offerings.  In my personal life, its how I invest and plan for my future.  Thus, knowing the future is a very valuable piece of knowledge that comes in very handy.

Over the years, I have delved into numerous means of predicting the future and have had the opportunity to determine the accuracy rate of each by simply watching and waiting. One way in particular has always yielded excellent results is listening to SMEs, Subject Matter Experts, in whatever topic you wish to know about.  This may seem to be common sense, but people like my mother always turn to their friends & family for advice, so its definitely not intuitive.  For example, calling me for advice on travel arrangement to Taiwan.  What in the world would I know about travel arrangements to Taiwan?  Call a Travel Agent mother, etc.

It is the act of listening to SMEs that brings me to today's topic.  

On a regular basis, I listen to SMEs in the area of geopolitics, economics & investing among several others, through podcasts, radio interviews, articles and books.   Lately, as in the past decade, they do not have good news.  In fact, they have very, very bad news and while I have listened to their warnings and taken action in preparation for what I think the future (as they describe) will look like, those I have shared their view of current and potential future events have ignore me.

You see, some extremely smart people have figured out that the economic system we have been living under for over 100 years is about to come to an end.  An actual full stop, painfully switch to a new one end.  They have lots and lots of historical references, charts & graphs, and have done their homework tenfold.  They have stood out among their peers and faced ridicule to get the word out and yet, they are mostly ignored.  Some call this ignorance, some call it normalcy bias, but after I faced equal ridicule, I realize its just no one wants to hear bad news.

This is terribly unfortunate because the odds are greatly in the SME's favor of being correct and in our near future, say by 2020, we will be experiencing a different world than the one we live in now.  There is a storm coming, a financial storm predicted to end the stranglehold the US dollar has on the world.  Somewhere over 95% of US dollars, mostly held in Treasury Notes (IOU's by the government), are held outside the borders of our country and there is a time coming when those countries are going to decide to get ride of their dollars and send them back to us in the form of selling en mass and buying up anything they can get for them.   What this means for you and I is prices for daily necessities go up beyond reach for many, business go bankrupt and without taxes being paid, so do governments (i.e. massive unemployment with no safety net).  The worst part is this will not just affect Americans, it will affect everyone who's currency is tied to the US dollar; which is most of the planet.

Have you stopped reading by now?  I know, its bad news.  That's the problem.  Its bad news, and even though the SMEs and everyone who listens to them have shouted from our rooftops to anyone who can hear us, we continue to be ignored.  Bad news is bad news.  No one wants to hear bad news.

-and this is where my story ends because for you dear reader, I shall share a little secret; the truth of the matter is, it is not bad news.  It is information on the coming storm.  It is not bad news to those who have this information and prepare their homes and lives accordingly.  It is not bad news to those who take action now while they can.  It is not bad news to those who will look back years from now and thank their deity for saving them and their families from great hardship.  It is only bad news to those who do not understand the difference.

Its funny how that works.