RE: Litecoin reforecast, $130 by August 2018 with simple linear regression
A very interesting analysis and one I think would hold true except for the first part of your article. LTC is the little brother of BTC yet holds many advantages over the better know blockchain. Being a huge Charlie Lee fan, none of what you mention is a surprise. However, as little known as bitcoin is to the general public, litecoin is not even a work=d 99% of the people know. It flew under the radar completely.
LTC has been on a linear projection since April...that part is correct. However there was a huge jump in price shortly before that. We witnessed LTC go from $4 to start year to $90 at the July/August peak.
Using a price of $70, if your $130 is correct, that is an 85% return in the next 10 months...hardly something that anyone can argue with. That said, I believe your projections are too low. Do I have statistical analysis to back up what I am saying like you presented? No. However, I do have the knowledge that Wall Street is on its way and 2018 should see the entrance of a ton of cash from that cow. Therefore, while I still believe that BTC will get the lion's share of that money since it is the known coin (meaning it is an easier sell for brokers to their clients), I feel that many alt coins will get a lot of the spillover. LTC will be one at the top of that list.
The entire space is about to be lifted a great deal. I believe the crypto market cap by this time next year will be over $1T (actually I feel there is a good chance that BTC is worth more than $1T by the end of 2018 on its own) which gives a radical jump to the prices of most any legit coin. LTC will experience another exponential jump which will exceed your projections.
Thanks for the analysis. Having a high statistical chance of an 85% return in 10 months is not a bad thing.....even if that is the floor.
All good comments. Thanks for reading and time to reply.
The big wildcard in my opinion will be whether BTC can get transaction time and cost resolved in the next year? If not, then atomic swaps could end up making LTC much more relevant than today.
LTC could be used for all small daily transactions, with atomic swaps as a free exchange from BTC. BTC is the store of value, LTC is for daily spending.
Using other terms, LTC is fast money and BTC is slow money.
That could cause a big lift off for LTC price. This would take LTC price far higher than $130.
I agree with your conclusion completely.
Having a good chance of 85% return with LTC in eight months is close to once in a lifetime investment opportunity.
I find the entire scaling debate to be non relevant and, at this point, misdirection. It is also why I literally laugh at the BCH propaganda.
Wall Street does not care about block size or transmission speed. It cares about liquidity and ROI. The only one who really can offer that is BTC. For all their ills, there is one thing Wall Street can do and that is raise money.....lots of it. The technology side drove the show, we are about to see what happens when finance takes over.
As for your points specifically, you are right on. From a technical standpoint, I think LTC ends up right where Lee wanted it...as the faster more flexible chain to compliment BTC. In the end, as it stands now, neither can compete with the centralized system of Visa in terms of transactions per second. Even ETH, which gets a lot of attention is at 25 and might get up to 2500....Visa does what, hundreds of thousands. Now that isnt to say it wont be figured out...there area lot of smart people involved in this.
Slow money, fast money...great terminology. In the end, you are probably going to be correct. BTC will be used to buy boats, cars, and to have public documents (you will see smart contracts there at some point) such as tax records while LTC handles some of the smaller ones. The advantage to Atomic Swaps is that, ultimately, it will occur between any blockchain...so other coins could play into it.
I am bullish on both BTC and LTC...obviously bearish on BCH...and dont even think about BTG.