Is the Trump Stock market rally over?

in #money7 years ago

If you pay close attention to the stock markets, you'll know the DOW/S&P/NAS have been on a aggressive rally since Nov 8, 2016 ... some call it a Trump stock market rally.

Using the DOW as a market proxy ... the DOW's technical indicators currently show;

  • The RSI has been unable to rally above 70 since March 2017.

  • The MACD has been unable to rally above 100 since March 2017 ... the MACD is also currently exhibiting the classic reversal sign that typically precedes a downward move in the short-term.

  • Price has been unable to rally meaningfully above the 50DMA since March 2017.

  • The 50 DMA is beginning to flatten, and may begin to go negative soon ... the 50DMA hasn't moved in a negative direction since early Nov 2016.

The Comey scandal, the North Korean uncertainty, the ugly numbers coming out of retail brick & mortar, combined with the deteriorating technical indicators on the DOW, lead me to conclude the Trump stock market rally from the past several months is now over ... be on the lookout for a correction phase starting very soon, IMO.

How low could a correction go?; using technicals as a guide, the 200DMA could be a line of support - currently the 200DMA on the DOW is 19,535 .

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One thing that may keep the DOW from correcting hard is the strength currently being exhibited from the handful of giant tech stocks (aka the FANG stocks) ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/hedge-funds-pile-just-six-tech-stocks