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RE: Jubilee Shockwaves To Continue Throughout This Fall
I see. Well I bought some puts on the Nasdaq that cover a 2 month window, just in case. The market has been basically range bound for 2 years and if you look at previous election years where the incumbent leaves office, there is a 40% move either up or down during the following 12 months. That somewhat fits into what you are thinking.... (although that 40% move has about an equal chance of being up as it does down)
We've been buying far out-of-the-money puts in case of a crash... by doing this we risk very little capital and stand to make massive gains (as we did last August when we made 4,500% in 3 days).
The problem with that is if the crash is only say... 5-8%... you get the move in your favor but you still could lose your investment. Something to take note of is the fact that hedge funds and money managers are having one of their worst years on record... they are sitting on tons of cash as well. They have to hit certain benchmarks, so they will be buyers on any dip. That will be standing in the way of a massive drop in my opinion...
I am still expecting the crash to happen next year, so it might be better to buy longer dated puts.