Technical Analysis of STEEM/USD - Experiment day 6
Update:
I've been pretty ill this past week and haven't been nearly as active as I was planning to be. Fortunately, I feel much better. So I'm planning to continue my daily posts and other articles.
Intro:
Using the Ichimoku Cloud as my trading tool and making a testable prediction about the direction of the price. Unlike the rest of these Chartists I make predictions, test them, and keep you updated on how they went.
Quick definitions:
The Blue line in is Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line). It’s the midpoint of the last 20 price bars.
The light red (non-thick) line is Kijun-sen (Base Line). It’s the midpoint of the last 60 price bars
The Green (Thick) line is Senkou Span A (Leading Span A).
The red (Thick) line is Senkou Span B (Leading Span B). Both leading spans are plotted into the future.
The green line is the Chickou Span (Lagging Span), and will always lag behind the price; it’s the most recent price, plotted 30 periods back.
9/3/2018 1:32 am MST
Imgur:
2 hour and 30 min: https://imgur.com/a/eI3yvao
30 min
2 hour
On the 30 minute time frame the trend-line is holding well. That is rather surprising as they often need to be redrawn. Further, over the past few days we've seen some momentum building up and the trading volume is generally increasing. These are positive signs. Except within the last few hours we are seeing a decreasing volume and generally lack luster price movement. However, Senkou Span B is holding up the price activity well enough on the 30 minute time frame. But based upon previous trends we've seen the Span's often get broken on the lower time frames.
But on the 2 hour time frame we still have a bullish TK crossover with support on the Kijun-sen. That's typically a buy signal but we'd need some confirmation from a higher time frame like the 4 hour time frame. As the 30 minute time frame has the Tenkan-Sen under the Kijun which is a bearish sign. Personally, I'd be hestitant to buy in at this moment. I'd look for the TK cross on the 30 minute time frame and a boost in volume. As there has been some resistance up around the $1.00 area.
But things are generally looking better for the market. The google trend search for "Cryptocurrency" has hit it's year low as of last week or the week before (Aug 19-25). With a slight uptick recently.... possibly reaching capitulation. Which would be a very good thing.
Prediction:
Prediction: Based upon what I'm seeing I think it will trade down to about 96 cents later today but then have a boost of volume midday and trade up to around a dollar. So trading between 96 cents and a dollar.
Current prediction results:
Last time I said that "Rises to $1.00 and hits some resistance at that level but doesn't go above a dollar." When i looked back on the 28th to the 29th of August it looks like I was more or less correct. It did rise to a dollar. But it did break a dollar briefly but went back down shortly. I'm going to count this as a correct prediction - although I'm torn.
Experiment day one - includes my rules
Current prediction rate: 60%
Conclusion:
Feel free to leave feed back, comments, and suggestions on anything - from the rules, to the quality of my TA, to how I could improve, ect.
If you are wondering why I'm doing this or why I'm creating rules or testing my predictions. Follow this link.
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Who is klabboy?
I’m different than some steemians. I have never been be paid to create content (baring likes from fellow steemians), I have never paid for upvotes, and all my content is 100% created by me. Nothing fake, no agenda, just my thoughts, and your comments.
Further, I’m a crypto-enthusiast, economics student, data nerd, and outdoors lover. I post mostly on economics, data, personal fun/stories, and crypto. If you have an interest in those things and the occasional random topic, feel free to like, follow, and reblog my content. Hope to hear from you in the comments! Have a wonderful day!