New Noble Predictive Insights poll of Arizona.

Conducted from October 28–30.

A 5 point gap between the Presidential race and Senate race seems a lot more realistic than the current polling averages gap of 8 points. We just don't see that type of ticket splitting usually anymore for the Senate. Especially for non-incumbents.

Anyways, don't count out Harris in Arizona. Polling is extremely close there. And honestly I think the fundamentals for her in Arizona are strong (demographics, ground game).

Prop 139 is the abortion rights constitutional amendment.