Presidential Election 2020: Oprah v. The Rock?
Oprah Winfrey's impassioned speech after winning the Cecil B. DeMille Award at the Golden Globes on Sunday placed one question on everyone’s lips: Will Oprah run for president in 2020?
The speculation follows buzz about another unconventional presidential contender: Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who has said he is “seriously considering” running for president. (Winfrey, on the other hand, is reportedly only “intrigued” by the idea of running. She’s stated in the past that she has no intention of running for any public office … but that was before Sunday’s speech).
People assume were either of these A-list celebrities to run for president, they would face off against an incumbent Donald Trump. To be fair, that’s probably the most likely scenario. But I believe some consideration should be given to another possible matchup that has the potential to be an even greater spectacle: Oprah v. The Rock.
How It Could Happen
No, Oprah v. The Rock isn’t likely. It would probably make more sense for Oprah to run with Johnson as her running mate, with Johnson making his own presidential bid in 2024 or 2028 (Meryl Streep has suggested Winfrey make Tom Hanks her running mate, and make Johnson part of her Joint Chiefs of Staff). But as unlikely as it may be, I see two possible circumstances that could make this far-fetched presidential battle a reality.
Let's assume, first of all, that were to Oprah to run, she would do so under the Democratic Party banner, and would easily secure the party's nomination. That's a reasonable assumption, given Winfrey's support of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in previous elections.
If Winfrey secures the Democratic Party's nomination, that leaves Johnson with three choices:
- Serve as Winfrey's running mate
- Run as an independent
- Run as the Republican Party's candidate
The first two options seem the most likely. A Winfrey/Johnson ticket seems unbeatable given their considerable name recognition and likability. If The Rock were to run for president, it makes the most sense that he’d do so as an independent, since he is a registered independent himself.
But if Johnson were to run as an independent, that would make it a three-way race (if you don't count the Libertarian or Green parties' candidates). A three-way race between Winfrey, Johnson and Trump would upend the American political system like nothing else. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Winfrey v. Trump is an almost certain win for Winfrey. But a race between Winfrey, Johnson and Trump? Who the hell knows? Johnson could pull voters from both Winfrey and Trump, and we could have a close three-way race on our hands.
Johnson, a Republican?
If Johnson decided he definitely wanted to run for office rather than join Winfrey's ticket, it might make more sense for him, rather than run as an independent, to run under the banner of the only other established political party in the United States: the Republican Party.
This may seem improbable, but I can envision The Rock running as a moderate republican in the vein of Arnold Schwarzenegger. California is one of the most liberal states in the country, yet Schwarzenegger managed to serve two terms as governor running as a republican, thanks to his celebrity and moderate political positions. Though Trump is unpopular, and the Republican Party is bound to take some heat by association, Johnson's fame and positive attitude could attract voters who don't normally vote republican — if he were to run on a moderate platform.
Johnson’s political views are unclear — something he’ll need to rectify if he throws is hat in the ring. But he’s appeared at the conventions of both the Republican and Democratic parties, and it wouldn’t be difficult to see The Rock espouse moderately pro-business and pro-growth views palatable to republicans, while taking a more liberal or moderate view on social issues.
If Johnson were to run against Trump in the republican primary, there’s no doubt in my mind that Johnson would trounce Trump, especially if Trump’s approval rating remains relatively unchanged through 2020 (although I suppose it could improve significantly by then; a lot could happen in two years).
If Trump were to not seek reelection, it’s doubtful any other candidate could stand in Johnson’s way if he sought the republican nomination — especially if it seemed possible that Winfrey could secure the democratic nomination. Who else could the republicans possibly put up against Winfrey that would have any hope of matching her star power? Johnson may actually be the underdog in such a scenario, but at least he’d have a fighting chance. That’s more than I could say of Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz.
Civility’s Return?
The lesson of Donald Trump’s presidency is that celebrities with no political experience should not run for president, not that more popular celebrities should run for political office. But if Trump has forever transformed the landscape of American politics and the writing is on the wall, a Winfrey v. Johnson election would yield one invaluable benefit: After the 2016 election — arguably the most contentious and ugly presidential election in recent history — Oprah and The Rock could restore some civility to the election process.
Maybe that’s a little much to ask for; though Winfrey and Johnson are gregarious and nice, who knows what entering the political arena will do to them, how much it will tear them both down? But we don’t need perfection from either of them. A little civility could go a long way.
Photo Credits:
Oprah: vargas2040/Wikimedia Commons
The Rock: Eva Rinaldi/Wikimedia Commons