I think he will pull it off, and we'll watch Tesla crumble. He's done yoeman's duty pissing off his sources of short term funding lately, and if you pay any attention to investor sentiment, the numbers for Tesla aren't conceivably going to result in continuing operations.

Musk is clearly a PR genius, and perhaps that's due to his sincerity. I cannot say that his ability to proselytize retail investors lacks sophistication or competence, but a frontal attack on the enemedia--which is necessary, while Tesla has served it's purpose according to his prior statements that he intended it to stimulate EV production by all manufacturers--will recruit many sophisticated and machiavellian foes to storm the gates of his vulnerability.

I don't think Tesla can make money anytime soon, but it's demise may not materially affect Musk's vision or plans. Spacex is practically kryptonite to naysayers, and his hard work and good luck have really built a launch company that has jumped the shark in terms of delivery costs.

What he really needed Tesla to do was create chassis, power trains, and carriages suitable for Mars, and I reckon he's already done that, as well as his PR goal of stimulating EV production by the entire market. A lot of companies are coming out with EVs at staggering losses just to compete in the market he pioneered, and that goal has been attained.

Investors in Tesla won't forget being burned however. He's made no such dismissive statements about Spacex, nor are his goals achievable should Spacex falter. He won't die on Mars if Spacex dies on Earth before he does.

He gutted Tesla to save Solar City, which he also needs to continue to innovate solar with to enable his Mars colony. He may well find a way to rescue Tesla investors using Solar City. I wouldn't bet against him, as he is very aware that retail investors have faith in him, and if Tesla lets them down, he will bear their ire as a result, no matter what he says.

I hope he doesn't succumb to the lure of using Spacex to save Tesla, despite it's profitability potential being nominal to do so, as Spacex is existentially important to the future of the human race, and Tesla and his public adoration aren't. He may, like any mortal, be incompetent to reckon the enmity the enemedia can bring down on his head, and if he miscalculates with Spacex, we could be trapped in the clutches of a Trump/Xinping alliance.

We need to be able to vote with our feet, and soon. Spacex may be our only hope of that. Neither Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, or NASA are going to make that possible.

Thanks for the interesting question =)