So, Kim Jong Un won, and so did Donald Trump

There is nothing irrational for a small isolated country under sanctions and under threat of millitary attack to seek nuclear weapons and means to deliver them to their targets. Nuclear weapons are from a military point useless, if you are North Korea, but they can serve as a deterrent. They buy security.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, declared that as of 21st of April 2018, his country will close its nuclear test site and suspend ballistic missile tests. ‘As the weaponisation of nuclear weapons has been verified, it is not necessary for us to conduct any more nuclear tests or test launches of mid- and long range missiles or ICBMs,’ he told a ruling party meeting. Mission accomplished.

North Koreans tested their missiles through last year, while pressure grew. They did not stop, even in the face of threats from US president Donald Trump and moving of forces closer to their borders. Change came only after a succesfull test of a balistic missile, capable of hitting all of the United States. Then, a fast change occured, with warming of relations with South Korea. This easing of tensions brought us so far, that a meeting between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump is on the table.

The truth is, North Korea won this round. They produced and tested balistic missiles, capable of hitting United States, thus sending a message, that any attack on them could come with a price of a larger US city being destroyed in a nuclear explosion. With their small economy, unable to modernize and maintain huge conventional forces able to win a war on the peninsula, nuclear weapons act as a shield. Experience of Iraq and Libya showed them that getting rif of your weapons of mass destruction invites an attack. That is the reason, why North Korea will most likely not give up their nuclear weapons, even if Americans offer large concessions.

In a way, Donald Trump won as well. Actually, he achieved nothing, but he can sell Kim’s decision to stop the tests as being a consequence of his tough foreign policy. Enough people will believe him. Both sides will save face and no one will lose much. A war with North Korea was never really in the interest of United States, as it would most likely increase tensions with China and would bring about a lot of destruction and disruption in trade.

What now? The real question is, if North Korea will undergo reforms and try to repeat the Chinese success, if the country will try o integrate into world economy and if there will be a redirecting away from huge military spending.

Time will tell.