Eliot Waves and The Egyption Revolution

Although the Elliott Wave Principle is mainly used by finance traders to analyze market cycles and predict market trends by identifying matches in investment psychology. I will try below to adopt it to the cascading movements of the Egyptian revolution, and try to predict the next move, and its probable features.

Since 'Revolution', plus or minus, is a driven sentiment, I thoght it would be worthwhile to try to adopt Eliot Waves sequence, and principles.

Let us start!

Looking back into recent Egyptian history (2000 - date), we may spot important movements in the political scene. If we put these movements in historical sequence, we get: "Kefaya movement" , "April 6, movement", "Jan 25 movement", and "June 30 movement".

We will consider all movements, regardless of, which of them is said to have been supported by the people real emotions, and which was kind of "pump and dump" by whales.

1 - "Kefaya movement" first emerged in 2004, and gained some popularity among politicians. It was aimed at stepping Mubarak down from authority, and stopping his plan of power handover to his son, Gamal.

2 - "April 6 movement" started 2008, and was mainly addressing economical issues, prices, inflation, wages etc.

3 - "Jan 25 movement" started by addressing "Police misconduct", and then elevated to the Request of Mubarak stepping down.

4 - "June 30 movement" was mainly addressing the stepping down of Muslem Brotherhood from authority.

Note that none of the movements, started by addressing "Stepping down of the military Ruling of the the Country", as a specific goal. This goal arouse after the stepping down of Mubarak, as subwave of Jan. 25 movement.

While, the First and Fourth movements, are said to have achieved their goals. The Second and Third movements can be considered as have been forced backward by the retracement wave.

We can consider movements 1, 2, and 3 as subwaves of the higher degree level Wave 1 of Eliot waves.

Also, we may consider "June 30 movement" as Wave 2, with retracement equal to the gains of movements 2 and 3.
The retracement has been lengthy in time, because Wave 1, went almost vertically at some point. (In just 18 days, Mubarak, was forced to step down.)

The beginning of the "June 30 Movement" can be seen as the date of "dismissal of Tantawi and Annan", and can be seen as continuing, so far, in the opposite direction of wave 1.

Per Eliot principles, Wave 2 can not go below the start of wave 1. (This is for sure, Mubarak will not be back in Authority at his current age of 90. Eliot principle does apply here)

Till now, we can see no signs of the start of Wave 3. The current status can be descriped as "Accumulation Phase". It is seen as sideway movement of the retracement wave.

To validate Eliot Wave application in this case, Wave 3 shall not be the shortest (valuewise, but not necessarily timewise). Meaning, it will provide gains above those of Wave 1. The breakout may occur at anytime.

We should, also, be aware of the fact that Wave 3 will be followed by a Wave 4, in the direction of Wave 2, and opposite in direction to Wave 1 and Wave 3.
Awareness can reduce panic.

Wave 5, the last one, seems to be far away.

Disclaimer: This is just an attempt to apply Eliot Waves Principle to political issues. It was not intended by Ralph Nelson Elliott, who discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools, to be used as such. Therefore, it is to be taken, with caution, as the writer's own openion.