Erdoğan Facing Trouble as New Challenger Emerges in Wake of 2019 Turkish Presidential Election
(PC - US State Department) (President Erdoğan)
Controversial Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has held onto power in Turkey alongside his right-wing Justice and Development Party (AKP) party since 2002. Originally elected as Prime Minister, he has spent his time in office gradually centering power around himself through referendums changing the institutions of Turkey to a presidential system that exerts power over all other forms of government. In 2014, Erdoğan was elected Turkey's first President. In 2015, an election resulted in AKP losing a majority in parliament, and a snap election was called to change this. The snap election gave AKP their majority back amid widespread accusations of vote rigging and fraud. A referendum in 2017 was called to center even more power around President Erdoğan, and the referendum was passed by an extremely thin margin (officially 51.41% yes to 49.59% no). This referendum also had its own share of voter fraud and vote-rigging allegations and happened amid direct suppression and chastisement of the no campaigners and voters.
Erdoğan has also cracked down hard on those critical of him throughout Turkey. He has jailed teenagers for tearing down his posters, jailed people for making and sharing a meme comparing his facial features to Lord of the Rings character Gollum, and has called for the prosecution and jailing of a German comedian who made a satirical video criticising him. Alongside all of these quasi-authoritarian attacks on free speech, Erdoğan also performed an extensive crackdown on those believed to be dissenting his rule following a failed coup attempt, detaining over 40,000, jailing over 20,000, and suspending 80,000 civil servants (largely teachers, professors, and academics across the nation. Despite all these moves, he and the AKP have maintained high approval among the Turkish population, and face little to no chance of being defeated by Turkey's main opposition party, the CHP, a center-left opposition party originally established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, Turkey's founder.
Erdoğan's luck may have run out, amidst the creation of a new party planning on challenging him for the presidency. The Turkish iyi Parti, directly translating to English as the "Good Party" led by vocal Erdoğan critic Meral Akşener is challenging him in both the 2019 Presidential election and the legislative election. On policy, the Good Party is nationalist, conservative, in favor of Turkey joining the European Union, and secular. Akşener is a former member of Turkey's far-right National Movement Party (MHP) but left amidst its support for Erdoğan's 2017 referendum. The party was created as a way to provide center-right voters with an anti-Erdoğan alternative party. Before the creation of the Good Party, the only two parties giving heavy opposition to Erdoğan and his policies were the Kurdish left-wing Peoples' Democratic Party and the CHP. Now Turkish voters that dislike President Erdoğan may be able to challenge him from all sides of the political spectrum through the Good Party. The Good Party's call for secularism and claims to represent the intentions of Atatürk may also bring it support, as Erdoğan and the AKP have worked to change many of the secular institutions throughout their 15-year reign.
(PC - Twitter) (Meral Akşener)
The 2019 elections in both the Presidential and Parliamentary sectors are far from now and polling on them is currently spotty, however, there are still a few polls in which to analyze. As for the Presidential Election, polls are already showing Erdoğan will face a challenge in 2019.
(PC - Wikipedia)
The most recent poll puts Akşener at a stunning 38% in comparison to Erdoğan's 48.7%, a position that would lead to a runoff, with only center-left anti-Erdoğan CHP voters left to choose between the candidate they prefer. This would be an extremely close race under this scenario.
As for the parliament, the Good Party has a lot of ground to cover if they want to prove they are the party that can take down Erdoğan. Polls have been taken from a variety of institutions, and the spectrum in which parties have support greatly varies between each polling company.
As shown by the polls, the AKP is looking to dominate the election, and win the most seats, regardless of the pollster. However, based on some pollsters, the Good Party may have caused a big enough dip in the support of the AKP to force them to lose their majority, something that would embarrass both Erdoğan and the AKP.
How do you think President Erdoğan will fair in Turkey's 2019 elections? Does the Good Party stand a chance against the AKP? Please write your opinions in the comments! Thanks so much for reading!
Sources
https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2016/aug/19/turkeys-post-coup-crackdown-in-figures
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%B0Y%C4%B0_Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_2019