Extremely important blog. Resteeming and following, but wanted to make two points in a comment:

1. Hainan Island incident. I believe a similar security crisis to the 2001 Hainan Island incident could spark off an incredibly volatile situation in Russia. In April of 2001, a Chinese fighter jet buzzed too close to a US spy plane over the heavily disputed South China Sea. The fighter jet collided, killing the Chinese pilot and forcing the US spy plane to make an emergency landing in China, where they were basically held hostage during the political turmoil that followed. This followed the "accidental" Belingrade bombings of 1999, so the Chinese were still pretty hot to begin with. With Russia buzzing our jets and ships at the level they are now, there is a possibility that this same circumstance can repeat itself, and could truly be a precursor to conflict.

2. Soft power. Before the Crimean invasion, Russia stepped up its soft power game. They engaged in various forms of Information Warfare, stepping up propaganda in the country to stoke Pro-Russia sentiment in the minority cultures of the Ukraine, particularly Crimea. Cyber attacks as well as rigging political processes also lead to the massively successful soft power campaign that preluded the Crimean invasion. This is important to note, as this same kind of soft power campaign is already well under way in the other Baltic states, leading me to believe that Russia is definitely prepping for another border hop.

Again, thank you for the content!