India Election Analysis and Forecast – Part 3: Tamil Nadu and Puducherry
In this analysis, we will cover the election dynamics of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Whereas Tamil Nadu is a full-fledged State, Puducherry is a Union Territory though located within the state of Tamil Nadu.
Section 1 – Tamil Nadu
It is among the top five states in the country in terms of the number of parliamentary constituencies (PCs). This time the state assumes added significance due to very very significant changes that have taken place in the state since 2014. However, before we get into the dynamics of the political situation at the ground level, let us absorb some basic data and highlights of the state.
Tamil Nadu politics is dominated predominantly by two local regional parties. AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) and DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam). Notwithstanding the words ‘All India’ in one of the party names, both these parties have no footprint outside the state of Tamil Nadu. And, the national parties have had no say in this state for last almost more than half a century. The last Chief Minister from a national party – Congress – was in 1967. Since then it was ruled by DMK for almost two decades and then for the last three decades, it has alternated between DMK and AIDMK. Both these parties were the personal fiefdom of their tall leaders. DMK was that of C N Annadurai followed by M Karunanidhi after the demise of Annadurai. And AIDMK was that of M G Ramachandran (MGR) followed by J Jayalalitha after the demise of MGR. By a strange twist of fate, leaders of both these parties have departed in quick succession since 2014. Jayalalitha passed away in December 2016, while M Karunanidhi passed away in August 2018. In a way, both these parties are undergoing succession battles.
DMK faces turmoil as the successor anointed by the patriarch does not carry the popular will. Although M K Stalin was the chosen successor M K Alagiri the other son of Karunanidhi does not accept his leadership and had to be expelled from the party. He is going to be working against the DMK this time.
The battles are more pronounced in AIDMK since Jayalalitha was not married and had no offsprings. The party was almost left orphan in the wake of her passing away. Some pitched battles took place between her distant relatives, her foster relatives and her party loyalists for the control of this party. There is no clear winner. The party remains fragmented. However, for the elections, a common front has been put up which is at best a truce of sorts. Whether it will evolve into a new power structure only time will tell.
In addition to the two above mentioned regional parties, there are quite a few other small regional parties also who have an influence on niche electorates. Not more than two or three PCs.
Recognizing the fact that a void exists in the state today in the political leadership field, there are two big names that have also thrown their hat in the ring. Kamalhasan a leading celluloid hero has been actively parleying in the political battlefield in Tamil Nadu for some time now. He has formed his own political party Makkal Needhi Maiam (meaning Center for People’s Justice) and would be putting up candidates for the 2019 LS elections in the state. Rajinikanth, an even taller hero than Kamalhasan, has yet to launch his party formally though the organization that he has created already has a name - Rajini Makkal Mandram. This party is not likely to be fighting the LS 2019 elections. Rajnikant may, however, endorse any party or party alliance or even individual candidates. We must not forget that the Tamil Nadu politics has been under the influence of film fraternity now for almost more than half a century. C N Annadurai, M Karunanidhi, MGR, J Jayalalitha have all been associated with the film industry in some or the other capacity. MGR and Jayalalitha were celluloid hero/ heroine pair of Tamil cinema.
The above scenario presents the state of the political environment in Tamil Nadu. It is clear from the above that no party is in a position to have an overwhelming influence on the electorate. Not even one of the two dominant regional parties. Their appeal stands considerably reduced due to the demise of their respective tall leaders. And despite reduced influence, the regional parties have enough appeal to make it difficult for national parties like Congress and ruling BJP to make strong inroads independently. Therefore the only other alternative left for parties is to form a pre-poll alliance. And hope that their alliance becomes the winning combination for the coveted 39 seats or gets a maximum share of them.
The DMK has formed an alliance with Congress and has worked out their seat-sharing arrangement. Under this arrangement 9 seats will be fought by Congress and remaining 30 seats will be fought by DMK. The seats for respective allies of the two parties will be out of the seat share of each one of them.
The AIADMK has formed an alliance with BJP. Under the arrangement, AIADMK and its allies will fight on 34 seats while BJP will fight on 5 seats. The prominent smaller party PMK is a part of this alliance.
The Makkal Needhi Maiam party will be fighting alone. They were expected to have an alliance with AAP (the ruling party of Delhi state) but that seems to have fizzled out. What is going to be their impact on Tamil politics is as yet uncertain. But political pundits reckon it to be at best marginal or insignificant.
In view of the above dynamics, the assessment by the authors is that the BJP alliance will have an edge. This is due to the excellent performance by the BJP government at the center. And also the fact that there is little for the voter to choose between the two leading regional parties. In a way, this is an opportunity for the electorate in Tamil Nadu to move towards development based politics away from dynastic politics. Here are some data points with respect number of beneficiaries who got the advantage of central flagship schemes.
Tamil Nadu is having a higher literacy rate and is one of the hubs of Information Technology. The voter population is more urban compared to the rest of the nation (48.4% as against the national average of 31.16%). They are likely to view the development done by the current government at the center as one of the key factors in voting. While there have been some high-profile projects launched recently such as oil pipeline and hospital these are not sufficient to give BJP a standalone chance. Hence the alliance and together the chances brighten. But whether or not that happens will be a question mark. It will only be clear when results are out around the end of May. But even assuming the politics remains mired in an aura of Charismatic personalities, Modi would be well ahead in the race having garnered good popularity in the south in the years since 2014.
Section 2 – Puducherry
Puducherry is a Union Territory of India. The territory has been formed by combining the four exclaves of former French colonies in India - namely Pondichéry (Pondicherry; now Puducherry), Karikal (Karaikal), Mahé and Yanam (Yanam). The territory has been named after the largest exclave Puducherry. See map below to get the location of the four exclaves on the map of India. The four exclaves are marked by the four red circles. Two of these exclaves lie within the state of Tamil Nadu, the third in the state of Andhra, and the fourth one on the border of Kerala and Karnataka. Being an erstwhile French colony, the influence of French culture can be seen everywhere. It has blended very well with the local culture of the respective exclaves. The respective exclaves speak their local languages – Tamil, Telegu, Malayalam. In addition, the French language also continues to be an official language in addition to local languages.
In the assessment of the authors, BJP will not contest this seat. It would be contested by All India N R Congress which is a BJP ally. They are likely to win also. The picture below presents the spread of Puducherry Union territory and the electoral data for the territory. S can be observed in the map below the Union territory of Puducherry is spread across four locations – marked as red circles on a map of India.
Given below is the summary of running total of the BJP expected win so far with this article included.
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