India Election Analysis and Forecast – The Big Picture and Final Projection
This article is a surprise one. We intended to publish this article at the end of our series. But owing to the demands and requests of friends and well-wishers, we have decided to advance it. People are very curious to know the projections as they are already getting numbers from different sources and ‘YouTube’ channels.
The Indian elections are at 2/3rd mark at this juncture. Out of seven phases of the elections, four are already completed. Voting has been completed on 374 seats i.e. more than 2/3rd of the total number of seats. Polling for the remaining 169 seats will take place on 6th May, 12th May and 19th May. In fact, polling for Lok Sabha 2019 has been completed in all States of the country except some seats in the States of J&K, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Delhi. So, out of 36 States and Union Territories, polling has been completed in 29 of them. See Map below.
According to the estimates of the authors of this article, BJP will get in between 300 to 326 seats in the LS 2019 elections. The optimistic estimates are 326 seats and neutral estimates are 300 seats. Bear in mind that these are the seats for BJP alone. The seats for NDA will be much higher. We are however not giving our numbers for NDA as a whole.
The estimates by the authors are a trend breaker. Most of the opinion polls or estimates do project Modi forming the government but with the help of NDA alliance partners. They are suggesting that BJP on its own steam will miss the halfway mark of 272 seats. The authors are differing on these estimates and opinions. The assessment of the authors is that BJP will do better than LS 2014 and win more than 282 seats on its own (282 is the number of seats won by BJP in 2014). NDA will go to historic levels and will cross more than 2/3rd seats in the House (the 2/3rd mark is 362 seats).
The tables below give the details on a State-wise / Union Territory wise basis. These have been clustered into five regional groups for better assimilation and study of the estimates. For a better appreciation, we have also given along with every State the total number of seats the State has in parliament, and the number of seats BJP won in 2014. We have presented two estimates – the optimistic and the neutral (neutral is neither optimistic nor pessimistic). Rather than taking these as two figures, it may make more sense to take this as the range within which BJP is likely to hit i.e. between 300 and 326.
Northern States
Eastern States
Central States
Western States
Southern States
The Big Picture
The question then goes begging as to what makes us so optimistic. It is difficult to translate the optimism to a set of points. We will still try and present some facts, which according to us are at the very core in the elections, and have generally gone unappreciated by the psephologists.
The historical perspective in India has been that factors such as religion, caste, region, etc. are the core factors influencing elections. Over the years these factors have been well identified and have been modeled into the assessment matrix and equations generally used for forecasting the number of seats by the different channels and organizations engaged in poll predictions. Although these organizations in the business of forecasting also use field survey and interviews, all of that is heavily biased towards traditional and historical understanding. As a result, the kind of questions they ask and the samples they choose get heavily influenced by their traditional mindset. All this has undergone a metamorphosis of sorts in the last five years. And it is the humble opinion of the authors that the organizations engaged in survey and predictions have either failed to spot this trend or are deliberately not taking cognizance of it due to reasons best known to them. We examine the various factors in the following paragraphs.
First and foremost are the schemes undertaken by the Modi government in providing the basic facilities to an individual (shelter, electricity, cooking gas and simple loans to start activities to eke out a living). These schemes are highly visible and even if an intended beneficiary is awaiting his turn, he is aware that his relatives or members in his community have received them. He does not mind the wait as he is confident that his turn is around the corner. All this has gone down very well with the masses and people have seen the benefits translate into actual deliveries at ground level. In our earlier articles, we have covered a few states in details where we have presented the data on the number of beneficiaries for these schemes. The numbers are really impressive.
The second factor that has played across the country is a tremendous surge in national pride. People see the rise in stature of India globally. This is felt by people when they travel abroad and the same gets relayed by word of mouth on return. In addition, the message is almost constantly getting reinforced by people of Indian origin who are working abroad or are settled abroad. These people carry tremendous positive sentiments back home when they come for a visit, or even otherwise in their regular interaction with their families over social media and other internet-based communication tools. This interaction is generally happening at a good frequency – weekly or fortnightly. Bear in mind that a very large number of the Indian diaspora is working abroad and hence the impact is also accordingly very sizeable.
The third factor is on the front of ‘Decisive Government’ and internal security issues. Over the five-year period, people have seen that this government does not shy away from taking tough and firm decisions in the national interest. The most recent case was Balakot airstrike. Before that, there was Uri Surgical strike. And even before that, the surgical strike in Myanmar carried out against insurgency with the concurrence of Myanmar government. All these actions have been deeply appreciated by the people across the nation. The issue of decisive government is not just in the context of Military operations. Even the actions taken against economic offenders have gone down very well. Some of the wanted offenders have already been extradited from abroad, while some others are at final stages of the legal process for extraditing.
The fourth dimension has been the total lack of corruption. This is not to say that corruption is at a zero level, but the big-ticket corruption is certainly at a zero level. The country had gone through tremendous emotional turmoil on big-ticket corruption prior to the Modi government coming to power. Almost every big defence purchase and award of every big infrastructure project saw big-ticket corruption. Money was also regularly siphoned off from benefit schemes run for the poor and needy. People are appreciating that money due to them under various benefit schemes is now getting transferred to them directly in their bank accounts. We should bear in mind that corruption was the predominant factor in the win for BJP in 2014 and hence the absence of the same in governance in last five years has been an extremely welcome development from the perspective of the voters.
The fifth dimension has been the check on inflation. There have been many an election in India that have been won or lost on the issue of prices of Onions, tomatoes, fuel, pulses, etc. The entire five-year history of Modi government (2014 to 2019) has seen consumer prices under check. This has been tremendously appreciated by people. Coupled with this have been the tax benefits extended to the middle-income group people. In itself, the amounts may not be very large, but the fact that the government decided to extend the benefit has been greatly appreciated.
Even more than the pecuniary benefits there was a great emotional dividend. For the first time in the history of this nation, a Finance Minister thanked the honest taxpayer for their contribution to nation building on the floor of the house and while presenting the budget. This was like a breath of fresh air in the society feeling strangulated by the odor of corruption, dishonesty, favoritism, nepotism, deceit, etc. perpetuated by a handful of people in cohorts with the corrupt politician and babudom (bureaucracy). All these were never a part of Indian culture and heritage and hence were emotionally stressful for masses. There was a widespread feeling of joy, relief and hope that finally, the nation is on the right track.
In 2014 Modi was a hope based on the success of his governance in the state of Gujarat. But today in 2019 Modi is a ‘dream merchant’ based on actual deliveries - nationally and internationally. People believe he can deliver based on their experience in the last five years. For the first time, while there is despair among the corrupt and dishonest, there is widespread joy, hope, and aspiration among the masses. And accordingly, the people have also classified the voting options in their minds. On the one hand, you have the opposition (gathbandhan as they call) which signifies the old order with all its malpractices emanating a foul smell. On the other hand stands out Modi who is like fresh air promising a strong nation, base level lifestyle benefits for all, commanding presence for India in the global world order in the years to come, and rediscovering the heritage of our great nation which dates back to several thousand years and not just a few centuries.
The above analysis very clearly brings out the divergence in the analytical framework used by authors in making an assessment vis a vis the historical and traditional framework normally used by survey and opinion poll organizations. As we can see from the above-mentioned factors, the traditional dimensions of religion, caste, region, etc are nowhere in the play. To say they have vanished will not be appropriate. But they have certainly been marginalized to the extent that it allows BJP to push itself beyond the threshold limits of 272 and reach a number of 300 or even the optimistic level of 326. The authors are very confident that India has moved in the intervening period of last five years from a historical and traditional mindset. In fact, the authors feel that the numbers will be close to the Optimistic levels rather than the Neutral level.
A reminder
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