2018 - The year Taiwan was already a part of China

Taiwan just completed their 2018 mid-term elections. The results were decisive, but not in a way that many expected. After the DPP's impressive win in 2016, which was a rebuke against the KMT's fast and loose dealings with Mainland China, the electorate again handed the DPP a setback, showing widespread dissatisfaction with the current direction of Taiwan.

Besides many KMT candidates winning local elections, there were several referendums on the ballet -- many more than voters usually are presented with. The main topics were relating to gay marriage, nuclear/coal energy, and one a topic which was especially interesting to me: a name change for Taiwan international sports competition, such as the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Taiwan, due to it's complex relationship and history with China, has performed under the name Chinese Taipei in international sporting since 1981. Mainland China has wanted control of Taiwan since 1949 when a civil war ended with the KMT government retreating to Taiwan, while the Communist Party government took over control of China, with the except of Taiwan. In those decades, the KMT government based in Taiwan received the benefit of full international recognition, such as at the UN and Olympics.
In the 1970s, the tides began to change, relations between the China and the US thawed, China received a seat at the UN, while Taiwan quickly lost formal recognition by the vast majority of countries. One of the issues, was that the KMT government, while losing the civil war, and being relegated to Taiwan, never lost sight of China, the dream of returning, and most importantly the belief they were the rightful government over all of China.
In 1981, after the political winds had steadily been blowing China's favor, but Taiwan's economic engine was still running strong, the Taiwanese government struct a deal with the Olympic committee on the naming of Taiwan's sports teams. In order to perform in international sports, maintaining distinction from mainland China, while still clearly identifying with a name which represented their belief about being the right government of Chinese, they opted to go with the name "Chinese Taipei." This name was approved by the IOC, with no objection from mainland China. At this time, the IOC offered Taiwan as a possible alternative, but the name was rejected by the KMT government as not sufficiently representative of the Chinese identity.

Fast forward from 1981 to 2018, China is an economic and cultural giant, much different than it was in the 1980s, Taiwan while still significant and impressive in many ways, is not the economic powerhouse it once was. A lot has changed in the political and cultural landscape. Taiwan has nary a mention claim over China, instead now focusing on the lands is does in fact have control over. China, with a new found sense of global financial power and rising power level military projection, makes its will known with a more imposing, less forgiving tone.

China's strategy has been to pull Taiwan so far into it's economic fold, the territory will have no choice but to capitulate to Chinese will. It was 2014, and this plan was underway, then an unexpected student protest took place, people were dissatisfied with the direction of the economy, and the amount of backroom dealing between the two sides of the Strait. Elections in 2016 were a chance for citizens to make their voice heard about relations with China. And so a less Beijing friendly, more independent leaning party was elected to power.

But two years after the DPP's win, the voters seem to have largely gotten cold feet about the realities of cooling relations with China. A series of disagreements on issues of foreign relations and international organizations has left Taiwan increasingly isolated in the international community. During these years, and going as far back as the last several decades, China has continuously made it well known they view Taiwan as an important part of the national territory and will go to any length to defend this claim.

What has stopped China from acting on this claim, besides some direct defense on the island, has been claims the US will defend Taiwan against invasion. However, with an uncertain political climate, a US reassessing its international role and relationships, and China gaining in international and especially regional clout, Taiwan has had to exist in a more unstable setting.

And so it is in this highly tense and complex political setting that Taiwanese voters are faced with the question of a name change for its international sports teams. Something which in reality should be quite benign and probably not requiring a national referendum. However, this proposed name change actually turned out to be both highly symbolic, and a litmus test for the state of affairs in Taiwan.

The way I see it, if voters had approved the name change, it would have been a statement they are looking for action on greater assertion towards autonomy, understanding some of the potential consequences, such as rising tensions, further isolation, and potential conflict. Likewise, a rejection of the name change implies the Taiwanese population not comfortable with the risks involved with such an assertion.

I would say Taiwan has painted itself in a corner, even before the name change question, but especially so now. An approval of name change almost certainly would lead to increased tension, but the form would be unknown. Would this be enough for China to do something militarily aggressive? Missiles over the island?

But rejection of the name change puts Taiwan in an entirely new light. To some degree, China has called Taiwan's bluff. Taiwan blinked first. They have reneged on their demand for autonomy and sovereignty. China has discovered a threshold, a pain point, for the Taiwanese people. China will surely now have more leverage and confidence to exploit this threshold.

Taiwan's basic strategy seems to be to play the long game. Hope for a chink in the armor, and strike, politically, when China drops its guard. And things could certainly play out that way, but as time keeps marching forward, and the balance of power between Taiwan and China continues to become increasingly asymmetrical, it seems fair to reckon Taiwan will have increasingly fewer bargaining chips achieve a favorable outcome for itself.

The most compelling estimation of how this standoff will play out is there will be no great war, no missiles fired, no invasion. Rather, things will simply continue to slip for Taiwan. It's economic options limited to actions approved by China. We will all wake up one day, and realize, while there was never a formal declaration, Taiwan has evolved to be the retirement community for affluent Chinese, perhaps something akin to a Florida, Hawaii, or southern Spain.

Over the last seven years, since I have been involved with Taiwan, relations have slipped much more than I expected to see in this amount of time. China has made it increasingly clear what their stance is on the situation, at the same time, Taiwan seems to be very limited about its options with this situation. I'm in no way saying I agree or disagree with the result of the name change referendum. However, I did see the referendum as a chance for the Taiwanese people to standup and claim their identity. Instead, they looked at the situation and choose to express themselves differently. China is very aware of these results and their implications for the future.

Is everything grim and dire on Taiwan, no I don't think so. But if you were looking to place your bets on the next rising star, you would be forgiven for refraining from going all in on Taiwan.

That being said, there might be some opportunities for Taiwan to redefine themselves, economically, developing a range of new skills and expertise which make them a unique asset, perhaps in areas such as fintech, AI, VR, or after the referendums results, green energy. But along with the rest of the world, they are vying to lead in this realm. I'm sure China prefer Taiwan to not develop industry dominance, and will take steps to limit and challenge their growth. Unfortunately for Taiwan, where they shine, these almost all seem to be sectors where China is also strong and growing.

A reality Taiwan may not like to hear, and not ready to accept. But the sooner they accept a path towards a form of reconnection, they more they will be able to craft what that future may look like for them. In 1981 they could have competed in the Olympics as Taiwan. In 2018, that option is off the table. What else might Taiwan be losing out on by delaying what some would say is the inevitable?