QFL Potential Trade Opportunity - 2.7.2018 - ETHUSD - Analysis

in #qfl7 years ago (edited)

Disclaimer: This is not advice, this is just information that can be consumed and used however you may wish - but it is not advice or guidance.

Hi all,

In preparation for another potential drop in price, I am writing a post on a potential trade opportunity with ETHUSD.

Potential Profit based on (similar figures in post):

  • 25%

Results:

  • Data collection is complete.
  • Analysis is complete.
  • Trade is in the planning/preparations phase.
  • Alerts are set at 7% and 10% below the base and also at each of you buy orders (so you know to set your sell orders!)
  • You can set your buy orders now or wait until your alerts go off.

Chart:

  • Base: 718.32

Previous data (analyzing the chart) shows me:

  • ~23% Median Crack
  • ~37% Median Bounce

Buy orders:
I am going to be slightly less specific on providing exact buy orders but I will provide ranges and say a few general statements:

Tips:

  • Make sure you layer in
  • I typically recommend buying during a panic sale - at least 10% below the base
  • Go in size closer to the median crack (increase buy order amount)

Approximate Buy Ranges:

  • 1ST BUY LAYER: Around $645 USD (20% of stack)
  • 2ND BUY LAYER: Around $610 USD (30% of stack)
  • 3RD BUY LAYER: Around $570 USD (50% of stack)

Sell Orders:
I am going to be slightly less specific on providing exact sell orders but I will provide ranges and say a few general statements:

Tips:

  • Try to sell/participate in every bounce (you can sell 30% of whatever you choose to sell - some people sell their lowest buy order layer, others will sell 30% of the entire stack that was purchased below that bounce)
  • If you plan on holding them then anywhere you sell for profit is good
  • Also, I wanted to reference the "Last Cracked Base" principle which is good to know about when trading below such a massive base especially in a bear market. The post describes it well but I will give it a shot. Basically, if the crack exceeds the average typical crack, then you want to try and sell on the next bounce close to where the closest base was cracked. I am going to steal a screenshot from the post (I will give credit though):
  • As you can see, the price did not return back to the base and kept going down, but he was able to sell/predict that the first bounce would go up to the lowest most recent base-crack. This is a good way to get out of a trade that is "getting away from you"
  • The post describing this principle is here: https://quickfingers.io/threads/the-last-cracked-base-principle.246/

Approximate Sell Ranges:

  • 1ST SELL LAYER: Around $630 USD (20% of stack)
  • 2ND SELL LAYER: Around $710 USD (30% of stack)
  • 3RD SELL LAYER: Around $790 USD (50% of stack)