Random Philosophical Question #1
Hi Steemit! This is the first in a series of posts of the random philosophical questions. Please, debate them and convince one another to your heart's content.
Question #1: With sophisticated enough technology and sufficient computational power, can the future be predicted?
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Any and all thoughts are welcome.
the future can not be predicted with 100% certainty, we might get close enough but never reach 100%
Not even if we knew all the variables? Or do you believe that we will never know all the variables?
Hmm, interesting question. Does the future already exist? Is time an illusion created by travelling along another dimension? If all states of matter, all paths have a permanent reality and we are unaware of them because we haven't arrived yet, then perhaps prediction is possible. If not, if free will exists, if randomness and chaos exist then prediction of the outcomes of all states of matter would be impossible. And finally, if the many worlds theory of reality is true, if everything that is possible must be real in a universe of its own then every prediction of the future is true, but it may not be the future you find yourself in.
does the future have to exist in order to predict it?
No. Trends could be predicted. Likelihoods could be predicted. Some lucky guesses could be right. But, to accurately predict future events with a great deal of specificity and get it right would suggest seeing the future, and you can't see what doesn't exist.
I'm assuming you mean predict accurately. Otherwise just predicting without regard to accuracy is not worth discussing.
You bring up a very interesting final point
It can't be predicted in a way our imagination works. It can be predicted in a way how and where our technological advance is heading. For example parking sensors can predict car crash etc. Predicting something bigger is impossible as humans are unpredictable beings. We can explore and progress, but we can never create tech that will tell us the future, what's even the point of that tech?
What about the near future, like could a "random" event, such as a dice roll, be predicted before the dice landed?
Too many "unknown" variables...subject to dynamic change. I think to predict the outcome of future events would require a deeper understanding and control of the main component, the common denominator...time. Deep learning and AI would have a better chance at predicting something alone these lines, based on previous patterns and probability.
I don't think we have a nearly deep enough understanding of time and the interconnectivity of several variables that would be dominant in creating such predictions. Maybe a couple more Einsteins; changing our perception and gaining a deeper understanding of the topic and we should be all set to go...possibly.
Quantum computing may open doors that we have no idea even exist at this point though. That's the funny thing about these types of questions...opinions are like a fart in the wind. Fleeting and carry no weight. For us to be able to predict the future would require something that has not yet been created, or most likely conceived. Quantum computing and mechanics in themselves can open several of these doors, or create new, unknown pathways so to speak.
Can I ask what quantam computing is?
I don't know a ton on the subject. It is computing using quantum physics principles.
Basically in short, allows you to do an essentially an infinite number of computations simultaneously, rather than sequentially...BUT you can do this without the passage of time. The analogy I've read several times is that if you think of time like a loaf of bread, then classical physics would state that you can slice that bread (time) as thin as possible, but it will always aggregate to the full amount of bread, and thus the passage of time. Quantum physics allows you to slice this bread in half and operate on the "face" of the bread, or the instance of time. This allows you to computer, or operate, on a slice of time without any time every passing by. This same principle applies to executing commands...
THAT...and I've also read that quantum computers simply take every possible solution a problem, and present the best ones...this one I can't explain well.
A computers cores allow you to do computations simultaneously (with shared ram for the most part)...
Thanks!
I would say that sophisticated technology (artificial intelligence) could certainly predict most outcomes with a great accuracy of over 80-90%, just as humans can predict outcomes with great accuracy. But, there are so many variables and we have free will. An awakened person could be so spontaneous that no human or AI could predict what they would do. Even if we were a holographic construct with a predetermined reality, which has been proposed in The Holographic Universe theory, we would have a certain amount of autonomy. So, yes and no....the future could be predicted but never at 100% accuracy in my opinion.
If we our choices are governed by the chemicals inside our brain which act according to the laws of physics, do we really have free will?
If determinism is true (and it is), then yes. However, if the Thing that is doing the predicting, is taking itself out of the equation, then deviations might occur. To take itself out of equation, the Thing that's doing the predicting might have to belong to a different dimension in order to predict with 100% accuracy. In other words, it might be similar to a computer running a simulation and predicting what will happen in that simulation with 100% accuracy.
I agree that it would make the predicting easier if the Thing need not predict for itself. But in your opinion, would it still be possible if it had to predict the effects of its predictions?
No, it's not a question of 'easy', it's a question of it going in a loop. You simply cannot predict everything you will do yourself, because then you have to account for how that prediction would influence your new decisions. So, let's say you make predictions based on all the info you possess. You possess info A, B, C, and you reach a prediction X1 based on that. But now the info you possess is A, B, C, and X1, and now you have to recalculate.
I'm talking of course of more conscious-like beings who can be influenced by their predictions. Perhaps a computer won't care about that. But if it's a machine with parts it needs to know what its own parts are doing, and in the process of 'knowing' it changes its parts. Think of it like a USB stick: if you use it to write a report of everything the USB contains in it, it's immediately false, because the report doesn't contain the report itself. But if you write the report on an external piece of paper (outside the 'dimension' of the USB stick), then you don't have to include it in the calculations.
What if the machine can account for the predicting that it knows it will be doing and maybe go into a recursive loop?
Then it will be constantly calculating instead of predicting. I guess.
Is there a difference?
It will never reach a final prediction. It's like looking into an infinite mirror.
But you can look into an infinite mirror, and you see what you see. Likewise, it's possible to add a half to a fourth to an eighth to a sixteenth and so on...
Alright, since most of the current replies lean towards an unpredictable future, a devil's advocate might counter: "If the human traits of rationale and behavior are dictated by chemicals that follow the laws of physics, couldn't a computer theoretically be able to model the interaction of atomic and subatomic particles inside the human brain and body over extended periods of time, predicting what each person would think, feel and do?"
Yeah, that's how I interpreted your question. Theoretically, since determinism is true, a computer could predict what we'll think, feel, and do. However, the computer doesn't have to know anything about the quantum world, if the behaviors that are being predicted belong to the macroworld. In practice, though, there's probably not enough atoms in the universe to give this computer the computational power it would need in order to predict everything.
That sounds like a sound argument. Can I ask what the quantam world is?
Well, to put it very generically (and perhaps falsely), the quantum world is everything you can't see (because it's too small). The macro world (the one in which we live in, let's say) is everything you can see around you. The laws of the quantum world don't affect the world we live in, which is governed by classical (deterministic) physics. In the quantum world there's strange (indeterministic) stuff happening, but those don't affect us.
Is it truly indeterministic or do we simply not have a causal model?
I believe it's the latter! So did Einstein! But that's just us!
can the computer theoretically predict the environment around the person? the environment (situation) changes, it might play a role in his behaviour (situation influences behaviour)?
Assuming the atomic and subatomic particles that form a human behave in the same way the particles that form its environment do, then it should be able to.
I hope not... future will be boring :)
Good point. Even if it was possible, I doubt it could be implemented within our lifetimes; therefore, I wish you a very exciting future.
Good question. For me future can assume but not in our hand.
nice to meet you.
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By "our hand" do you mean the hand of a human being in the 21st century or any human being, including in the future?
i mean, every one on the earth. because we don't own tomorrow.
But is it possible that we will in the future?
I cannot say no. because i am waiting for technology to grow. as for me my spinal cord inquire to recover is if only technology is grow. until now, no one recover yet.
That makes sense; we are trying to predict whether we can predict the future while living in a time when we cannot predict the future.
in my humble opinion, no one can predict the future.
the future is secret of god.
So you do believe in determinism, correct?