I'm Calling It -- The TOP Of the Housing Market

Housing is HOT right now!

Image Source: Realtor.com

I've been hearing it the last few years, and it's absolutely true. It's been going on for a long time, too. I bought my house, a new construction, in 2011 and it's only gone UP! Now, I may have got lucky and bought at the bottom of the market, or pretty close to the bottom. I am certainly not some kind of real estate savant...not some expert...but I will say I was pretty fortunate to move to the right market at a good time...when a new neighborhood was starting up and the builder was looking to get some projects started. I got a nice corner lot on a new street, with trees in the back yard. In the middle of farm country, trees in the back yard were a rare thing. Again, I was lucky.

Fast forward 7 years later...things are still looking up. There are many markets that are still really hot right now and there is a lot of money to be made, but I'm seeing signs that are repeating from the last housing crisis. Maybe it is just my overall pessimism of the market in general, but I feel like this spring will be very telling of the overall direction of the housing market.

But I'm not the only one thinking this. Forbes actually published the following prediction on Jan 10 of this year:

After five consecutive years of solid gains, home price growth in 2018 is likely to calm down measurably and rise by only 2% on a nationwide basis. Some states will actually experience a price decline, while others will still enjoy large gains.

You can read the whole article here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrenceyun/2018/01/10/2018-home-price-forecast/#34e066646957. But it's also worth mentioning the fact that housing starts have been decreasing...

Housing starts decreased 8.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million units, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. November's sales pace was revised up to 1.299 million units from the previously reported 1.297 million units.
As noted in this article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/housing-starts-dec-2017.html

But a person can look at all the raw data and hard facts all they want, that doesn't necessarily mean they will absorb the true meaning of the markets. It has been said the market can stay irrational far longer than a person can stay solvent. But much like the rich guy who noticed the market top when the shoe shine boy started giving stock tips, I've noticed additional signs, like the picture below, which was a post that popped up on my Facebook newsfeed from a friend of mine at a lending company:

Additionally, when watching some YouTube videos, I've noticed a big uptick in the frequency of house flipping business ads. "This seminar taught us not only how to flip houses, but how to manage a house-flipping business!" It sounds like the overall wave of momentum is all for taking advantage of all the "opportunities" out in the market right now, but here I am witnessing my paren't house, still on the market after almost 10 months.

Things are slowing...be careful out there.
-Randomness