He is deluding himself that it was a series of unfortunate events that were out of his control that lead to this.

An interesting theory. I think it was his plan from the beginning to eventually jump ship, as it follows the same trajectory as past scams of his. Gain trust, hold money, make modest dividend payments early, then disappear.

Then again, maybe he thought it would be "different this time." But I really don't think so, especially given he changed the terms of @bellyrubbank almost immediately.