The Math That Predicted the Arab Spring

Back in 2011 protest movements were rife throughout countries in North Africa and the Middle East. These protests were usually associated with autocratic regimes and are often thought to be motivated by the failings of the political systems in the human rights arena. The New England Complex Systems Institute noticed that the protests and riots coincided with large peaks in global food prices and they identified a specific food price threshold above which protests and riots might become likely. Their observations suggested that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the abrupt desperate straits of vulnerable populations. Thus if food prices were are to remain high, it is probable that there will/would be tenacious and increasing global social disruption.

Here's a quick video on it:

And Here's a link to their paper: http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf