Why I am optimistic about Silver prices [Bullish thesis]
Depreciating dollar leading to inflation
First of all, we've got the Fed raising their own inflation expectations by a full percentage. Yesterday, Powell testified in front of congress that inflation was hotter than they expected which makes me think that they are underestimating inflation as a whole. He keeps pointing to lumber as an example how commodity prices can fall, but the fact that we're having increased consumer demand vs industries and companies that are struggling with labour shortages. WSJ said that supply bottlenecks were expected to continue throughout the next year! That will lead to inflation. Plus, we've got the unprecedented QE programme and a lot of investors, economists and politicians are questioning whether there is any point to even keep it going given the fact that it devalues the dollar and adds more and more debt to US's already massive government debt. Add to that the massive budget coming this year and we've got a lot of reasons to believe why the dollar will be devalued.
Since the dollar is the reserve currency of the world and gold, silver, etc. are valued in dollars, what will happen to their price? They'll go up.
Supply vs demand
Unlike gold which is mainly used as an investment, the biggest demand for silver comes from industry, 50%+! Silver is important in renewables, energy storage, EV, etc. and these industries are entering an exponential growth. Just look at China's and US's plans for solar over the coming years! There is an incoming supply gap of an estimated 100mln oz in 2025 with few new projects opening up to match that.
Plus, of course, we've got all the r/Wallstreetsilver stacking silver like crazy which also drives silver demand. There's been a massive jump in demand for silver as a physical investment with the Sprott Physical Silver Trust buying 1 out of every 6 oz silver mined this year! This is unprecedented!
What to expect
Judging by what I've read, this is not your GME-get-rich-quick-in-two-days squeeze. This is a slow, gradual, death grip on the silver supply. It will take a while, possibly longer than a year or even longer so stack and be patient (or don't, I'm not a financial advisor, do whatever you want). If you do decide to stack though, patience is key. I personally prefer getting $PSLV, it seems to be the most transparent, solid and reliable silver trust out there (GTFO SLV, nobody likes you and your buddy JPM). The best thing with buying PSLV is that you skip the massive premiums from bullion banks. 75% premiums on spot means that you could be getting almost twice as much silver off the market if you buy PSLV (if my logic is erroneous, please let me know) so that's my preferred method. Plus, you've got liquidity there so you can literally get rid of your holdings in a few minutes. Obviously, you can't take pretty stack pictures, which is a massive drawback, but I'm willing to live with it!
If you want to learn more, check my video analysis plus my top silver stock picks here:
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Greetings...
July 3, 2021... 1.4 Hollywood Time...