I'm very glad you liked it. Although I work in another branch of industry I find it interesting to look through the hype surrounding space projects to find their real motivations and limitations. That's how this piece was born - it started with an announcement of creation of Bigelow Space Operations, but then the more i dug in space tourism related activities the more unexpected picture I saw until I realized that sadly nobody loves orbital tourists.

Using this method to look through SpaceX's BFR I believe that it's completely feasible for them to do operational flights of lower (first) stage of BFR in 2020. After all their expertise in reusable fly back boosters is unmatched. On the other hand their experience with returning objects from space is limited to classic capsules and I don't think you can easily extend it to winged or lifting-body upper stages of the size they plan it to be. Therefore my bet is that upper stage won't be ready to fly in two years. Of course I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong.

I'm old enough to remember the last wave of space travel enthusiasm when numerous projects were popping up, promising huge advancements to come in leaps. Although only a fraction of it was delivered the progress is substantial and I can't wait for all the goodies bound to happen in coming years.

Keep up your good work and Steem on!