UFC218

This weekend has the best card of the year in my opinion. So much violence & so many meaningful fights.

My first bet of the card is on Alhassan at -225. I think he wins this easily and he's been handed an opponent to make him look good after a slip up in his UFC debut. Alhassan should take him out but I won't be getting tricky with props here. 2.2Units on at -220 to win a unit. This should get us off to a profitable start

Teymur/Klose is really flying under the radar here. I was shocked to see Klose open as +140 underdog although i personally cap Teymur as a small fave. I think he keeps it standing and uses his far superior striking to win a clear decision. Teymur uses good lateral movement and is solid in the clinch where Klose does some of his better work. I don't think Drakkar has the top control to keep Teymur down and we saw great urgency from Teymur against Lando in grappling exchanges. Though it sounds like I am very confident in Teymur, i cap him around -150 & that's around where he sits now. No edge is a pass. If he gets to -120 I think he's worth a unit

Charles Oliveira returns!! I love this dude. Yeah he's got a reputation for being a 'quitter' but he looked good v Pettis and just submitted Will Brooks. Many will discredit the Brooks win because of his failed UFC run but Olives is legit. Underrated wrestling and magnificent submissions but I also think his striking goes unnoticed. I don't think Felder is worthy of being favourite here despite an edge in the stand up and likely a size advantage. We have only really seen him in good stylistic matchups for him. Saturday he fights a guy who wants to grab him, not strike for 15 minutes. I love Charles at +130 and have 1.25U on him.

Tecia Torres inexplicably reached -110. How? I haven't a clue but I am grateful to the MMA betting gods i got -130. Torres is one of the best in the division. She fights smart and has actual athleticism rather than head and arm throws like Waterson. The bad thing about being confident in a WMMA fight is knowing more often than not it's going to decision. They have next to no finishing ability. I'll sweat the judges decision here no doubt but i cap Torres at around -180 so take the -130 on offer. I did for 2.5U

Eddie Alvarez v Justin Gaethje screams violence. I feel bad for their loved ones having to watch this. Eddie will try and wrestle initially and most likely not have much success. This is where the fun starts. Justin will walk him down with no regard for his own wellbeing hoping to land stiff leg kicks and big hands. Both will likely get tagged, both will likely get wobbled. If you have to bet, take the underdog as I dont think either deserve to be +165 like Eddie is but I am just watching this for fun. No bets, just sit on the edge of my seat for 15 minutes watching 2 spectacularly entertaining dudes go to work.

Keeping this one brief. Pettis v Cejudo is a good fight & could be a title eliminator. If this fight happened before Cejudo fought Reis, I'd have taken Pettis. After seeing the improvement in henry's boxing and knowing the caliber of wrestler he is I think this is his for the taking. Not thrilled about the price so I'm passing for now but i expect a 29-28 decision for Cejudo.

Ubereem v Frankie Murder. How awesome is this going to be! Overeem has hit +200 against a relative rookie. We all know why, we don't trust his chin. We also didn't trust his chin v JDS and Hunt and he put both of those guys out. If Overeem can keep distance & land kicks for a round or 2 I think he takes the fight. We haven't really seen Ngannou's cardio tested & this is a massive step up in competition from Arlovski and a too raw Blaydes. I'm pumped for this fight and will likely have 0.75U on Overeem. I may add if the night is going well but like the Eddie/Justin fight I'm tempted to just watch for fun. Great fight on paper

Max Holloway. Crazy how good this kid has gotten. I think Aldo is on the tail end of his career and I don't think he can match the output of Max for 5 rounds. He may win the first 2 and it'd be nice to see him throw kicks for a change! I can't play Max for -325 though. I think the best bet I have found is Max in rounds 4, 5 or decision at +180. Aldo should have the cardio for 3 rounds and hopefully he survives the volume for 15 minutes. I'm on this for 1U

Not writing about the TUF Finale because I couldn't care less what happens but 2 good plays are Joe Soto at +186 and Over 1.5 rounds in the Spicely fight at +100. I'm on both small

Good luck all. Let's cash those tickets

I don't bet exclusively here but if you like betting with BTC Bitcoinrush (my referral link here) https://www.BitcoinRush.io/r?u=30833 is a solid platform.

Odds taken from sportsbet.com.au/Pinnacle and Bitcoinrush at the time of writing.