NBA DFS 10/17 Lineups/Results
Projections
Draftkings
There were a few lineups in contention, but when tweaking projections in various ways, this was the consistently best lineup. The only high owned player I faded was Kyrie Irving, but there were no players to spend up for with the $500 savings from Steph Curry. Maybe Kyrie/Ariza > Curry/Tatum, but my final numbers had that 2.04 points lower. Perhaps I had Curry slightly overprojected and Kyrie slightly underprojected, but it's unlikely that tweaking would result in a > 2 point difference to make the Kyrie combination better. I was comfortable with this lineup, and it cashed everything.
Fanduel
I was originally going to skip Fanduel, as I didn't think it would be profitable on a 2 game slate, but I worked hard on the projections yesterday morning, so I registered a few contests late and not much filled. 8/9 slots were a lock with one semi 50/50 spot: LeBron James or Kevin Durant. If I had more money on it I would have split them evenly, but after cancels I didn't have enough to care, so I just went with Durant who was projected for .76 more.
It's possible I haven't properly taken into account LeBron's numbers with Kyrie off the floor, so perhaps he was better, but combining his ankle injury, the higher total in the Warriors/Rockets game, and 3 points for steals/blocks on FD now, I still think KD was the better choice. The LeBron lineup would have doubled, but luckily I only played small so it was a small loss.
Yahoo
Entire lineup was a lock: nothing else within 2 points of this. Just bad luck for the Love/Durant/Crowder side to lose to Draymond/LeBron/Jaylen side by 40, but my numbers had that 2.87 points back so it was out of contention for me.
The stats were updating incorrectly last night, so a late adjustment made me about $3 more than on the above screenshot.
FantasyDraft
Another lock lineup: second best lineup was over 1 point back.
Results: +$4,470.22
Successful first day! A little lucky that I won on the two sites I played bigger, but had I entered more contests on Fanduel I would have won due to splitting lineups. I don't think I should play much bigger until I'm more confident in my updated numbers for the season -- it takes a while to gather enough data to be confident in new rotations.
The rake is high and lobbies are infested with sharks, so I'm comfortable grinding $7-10k worth of action a night for the time being. If I can achieve 10% ROI -- which should be doable with my current game selection combined with FPPs/bonus clearing on FantasyDraft -- it's still worth it for me to put in the 5-6 hours a day to make $700-1k a day. Not to mention, just like MLB, the stronger my projections get over time, the bigger I'll play.
My name is Ryan Daut and I am a professional gambler. My interests include dogs, poker, fantasy sports, football, basketball, MMA, health and fitness, rock climbing, mathematics, astrophysics, cryptocurrency, and computer gaming.